An AP-NORC poll released October 15, less than four weeks before Election Day, shows President Donald Trump's approval stuck at about one third of registered voters, with roughly 8 in 10 voters disapproving of his handling of living costs and about three quarters disapproving of his broader economic performance.
The survey, first reported by The Independent, also found a wide enthusiasm gap working against Republicans: nearly three quarters of Democratic voters call voting this November extremely important, compared with about 6 in 10 Republicans. The numbers arrive as early voting is already underway in Iowa and the state's Senate and governor races tighten.
What the AP-NORC poll found
About 8 in 10 voters identify the economy or the cost of living as a top concern heading into the midterms. Healthcare and the conflict in Iran follow, each cited by roughly two thirds of respondents. Issues where Trump has traditionally polled stronger, including crime and immigration, rank lower on the list this cycle.
Only about one third of registered voters hold a favorable view of the president, and a matching share approve of his job performance. The dissatisfaction reaches into his own party. Just 44% of Republican voters approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, and 54% approve of his overall economic stewardship.
Foreign policy is another soft spot inside the base. Only 69% of Republican voters approve of Trump's handling of foreign affairs as the Iran conflict enters its eighth month. Trump had earlier said the war would wrap up in four to five weeks. The fighting has become a political weight for the White House, though both Trump and Iran say the election is not driving war decisions.
Why voters say they want change
About half of respondents told pollsters they want substantial change in how the country is governed, and nearly 3 in 10 want complete and total upheaval. Even among Republicans, 45% support substantial change and 13% back upheaval.
Krista Kohles, a 70-year-old Republican who lives near Davey, Nebraska, put it bluntly.
I'm kind of tired of sending people there and nothing gets done. Nothing's changing.
DonnaJean Weber, a 72-year-old Republican from Manistee, Michigan, said she still plans to vote for Republican candidates this fall but is unhappy with prices.
Everything's going up. I don't agree with him fully on all of these tariffs, either. It's making this country look bad.
Enthusiasm gap and the congressional map
With Republicans having controlled Congress for two years, about half of registered voters now say they prefer Democratic control of both the House and Senate. Roughly 4 in 10 favor Republican control, and 15% remain undecided.
Both parties' voters like their own side equally, with about 8 in 10 in each camp holding favorable views of their party. The problem for the GOP sits with independents: about two thirds of independents view Republicans unfavorably, compared with about 4 in 10 who view Democrats unfavorably. Overall, 6 in 10 voters view the GOP negatively, while about half view the Democratic Party negatively.
Ryan Longbrake, a 52-year-old Democrat from Columbus, Ohio, told pollsters he has made sure his wife and two college-aged daughters will vote, and he pointed to Democratic spending in Republican-leaning states.
I believe that there is change on the horizon and there is an excitement within our party.
Longbrake specifically cited Democratic investments in states such as Iowa and Kansas, where candidates believe they have found a more receptive electorate than in past cycles.
Other polls point the same direction
The AP-NORC findings line up with a string of recent surveys. A Fox News poll released October 14 put Trump's approval at a record-low 36%, with the Iran war a top concern for 42% of voters. CNN reported that September prices rose more than expected, delivering what the network called the worst possible inflation news for Trump and Republicans heading into the midterms.
A Star Tribune/KARE 11 Minnesota Poll found mounting disapproval of Trump's presidency in Minnesota, driven by the same frustration over the economy and the war in Iran. Even some Trump-endorsed candidates are distancing themselves. Mike Rogers, the Republican Senate candidate in Michigan, is running an ad saying the war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly, according to The National.
Voters are also lukewarm on the alternatives
The poll contains one piece of good news buried in the details for Republicans: voters are not sold on the Democratic Party either. About half of respondents view Democrats unfavorably, and only about 4 in 10 view them favorably. Vice President JD Vance draws an unfavorable view from roughly half of voters, with about one third viewing him favorably.
Michael Russo, a 51-year-old unaffiliated voter from Texas, described conditions under Republican rule as a nightmare and said he wants several Republicans in prison. But he added that he has little faith the other side would perform better.
I'm not confident they're going to do anything if they get into power.
With ballots due in under a month, roughly two thirds of registered voters consider voting extremely important, and another 2 in 10 call it very important. Whether Iowa Republicans can close the enthusiasm gap before the final votes are cast may decide whether the state stays in the GOP column.
Frequently asked questions
What did the AP-NORC poll find about Trump's approval?
Only about one third of registered voters hold a favorable opinion of Trump or approve of his job performance, according to the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey published October 15, 2026.
How do voters feel about the economy?
Roughly 8 in 10 voters disapprove of Trump's handling of living costs, and about three quarters disapprove of his overall economic performance. About 8 in 10 voters name the economy or cost of living as a top midterm issue.
Do voters prefer Democratic or Republican control of Congress?
About half of registered voters prefer Democratic control of both the House and Senate, roughly 4 in 10 favor Republican control, and 15% are undecided.
How enthusiastic are Democratic and Republican voters?
Nearly three quarters of Democratic voters consider voting extremely important, compared with about 6 in 10 Republican voters.