President Donald Trump and Iran's leadership have each spent the final stretch before the Nov. 3 election insisting the same thing: the U.S. political calendar is not driving their decisions in the seven-month-old war between the two countries.
Both sides are dug in. Iran says there will be no deal until the U.S. lifts its naval blockade and eases sanctions. Trump has sent more military hardware to the region and threatened to resume strikes, even as he declares the U.S. will not attack Iran before Election Day. Iowans are watching closely, with gas prices and inflation weighing on households and on Republican candidates like Rep. Ashley Hinson, who is fighting for an open Senate seat.
What Trump Is Telling Voters
More than a week into a 32-day campaign blitz for Republican candidates, Trump is telling rally crowds he is winning the war, while warning he is ready to finish it if Iran does not give in.
“I will tell you what: Iran will be very quick one way or the other,” Trump said Friday while campaigning in New York. “Either they give us everything, or they don't exist any longer.”
Speaking to fellow world leaders last month at the U.N. General Assembly, Trump said he “will not give credence to the election when it comes to Iran,” according to reporting carried by ABC News and other outlets.
Hinson: Iowans Shouldn't Foot the Bill
Trump's message is a hard sell for some Republicans in competitive races, with voters frustrated by elevated gas prices and food costs. In Michigan, Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers said the “war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly.”
Hinson, locked in a competitive Iowa Senate race as early voting gets underway across the state, said Iowans shouldn't have to “foot the bill” for the war. Seven House Republicans voted for a war powers resolution aimed at reining in the president's ability to wage the conflict.
Public opinion is a headwind. An Associated Press-NORC poll published last week found 69% of Americans say the war has not been worth fighting, up from 64% in July. Only 28% approve of how Trump is handling Iran.
Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory in Pennsylvania, said Republicans who try to separate themselves from Trump on the war face a steep climb.
“It's an enormous weight on Republicans,” Borick said. “Shifting the narrative to draw separation from Trump is going to be a Herculean task.”
Iran's Economy Is Reeling, but Tehran Isn't Bending
Trump's stated war goals have shifted over the course of the conflict, according to a report from Al-Ahram, the Egyptian newspaper, moving from maximalist demands for unconditional surrender by the theocratic government to a focus on economic pressure, containing Tehran's nuclear program, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The pressure is real. Iran's navy and air force have been devastated, key political and military leaders were killed in the conflict's opening weeks, its oil minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned this week, and the Iranian rial continues to crater under U.S. sanctions and the blockade on Iranian oil.
Yet Iran has shown resilience as Trump has repeatedly come to the edge of ordering major new strikes, only to pull back. Sasan Karimi, a former Iranian government official, said an American election season isn't fundamentally changing Iran's approach to a U.S. leader Tehran considers an unreliable narrator.
Iranian leadership, Karimi said, is concerned that “the U.S., especially in the Trump era, will not be compliant with any deal even if he himself signs it.”
Where the Negotiations Stand
Talks had stalled after Trump publicly rejected Iran's proposal late last month to quickly reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. met certain conditions. Iranian officials say they have since received a U.S. counterproposal, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Thursday he expects Tehran to deliver a formal reply within days. Trump called the indirect negotiations “productive.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Tehran wants a return to the framework of the short-lived June deal, which promised financial relief that never materialized. But he voiced skepticism Thursday while meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan.
“We are trying to move the process forward. We are having conversations; every time we have held talks with them, they attacked us again,” Pezeshkian said.
Iranian officials say the U.S. must lift its blockade before Iran stops attacking international oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. “We are telling America, you have to act first. Enough talking, enough negotiations,” Mohsen Rezaei, a former Revolutionary Guard commander and secretary of Iran's top security body, told Iranian state television.
Some in Tehran expect the fighting to restart. Mahdi Mohammadi, a Tehran-based analyst and adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, predicted on Telegram that “the war will start” again soon.
Oil Routes, Gas Prices, and the Iowa Connection
Trump points to a recent surge in Gulf oil moving through the strait as proof Iran will soon have to capitulate. U.S. Central Command has been escorting tankers through the waterway at night with their location systems switched off, according to the Al-Ahram report.
But Iran has ramped up attacks on tankers in recent days, ship traffic remains well below prewar levels, and tanker operators willing to run the gauntlet are in some cases charging rates of $1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say. Those costs feed directly into the pump prices frustrating Iowa drivers and farmers heading into harvest.
The situation is further complicated by a new military campaign by Saudi Arabia and Yemen's government to drive Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another critical oil route. The Houthis have responded with drone and missile strikes on Saudi airports and infrastructure.
Does Either Party Win Iran Over?
Hamzeh Safavi, a political scientist at the University of Tehran, said Iranian officials are giving little weight to the midterms as they calculate their next move.
“Iran knows that whether it's Democrats or Republicans, there is a shared view about the fundamental confrontation with Iran,” Safavi said. “They just might not agree regarding the method of confronting Iran. For that reason, the results won't really create a foundational change in relations with Iran.”
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the U.S. election?
The midterm election is Nov. 3, when control of Congress will be decided.
What do polls show about the Iran war?
An Associated Press-NORC poll published last week found 69% of Americans say the war has not been worth fighting, and only 28% approve of Trump's handling of Iran.
What is Iran demanding to end the conflict?
Iranian officials say the U.S. must lift its naval blockade on Iranian oil and deliver sanctions relief before Iran agrees to stop attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
How is the war affecting prices in Iowa?
Reduced tanker traffic through Middle East oil routes has driven up shipping costs, in some cases to $1 million a day per tanker, adding pressure to gas and food prices that candidates like Ashley Hinson say Iowans shouldn't have to foot the bill for.