Prediction market platform Kalshi gives Democrats the edge in seven key U.S. Senate races with days to go before the November midterms, including contests in reliably red states like Iowa, Texas and Kansas, Firstpost reported on November 3.
The numbers have Republicans playing defense in states President Donald Trump won comfortably in 2024, and they put Iowa's open Senate seat squarely in the national spotlight.
Iowa's Open Seat Is One of the Closest Races in the Country
Senator Joni Ernst's decision not to seek re-election set up a contest between Republican U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist.
CNN's Poll of Polls average shows no clear leader, with Turek at 46 percent and Hinson at 45 percent. Trump carried Iowa by 13 points in 2024, and the state has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, CNN reported.
The campaign has centered on the cost of living and the financial squeeze on Iowa families. Turek has argued Hinson is out of touch with household budgets, while Hinson has pointed to her experience as a working mother.
Where Democrats Hold the Edge
Kalshi Politics posted the latest figures on X, putting Democratic chances at 78 percent in Michigan, 76 percent in Texas and 73 percent in Maine. Final New York Times/Siena polling also shows Democrats ahead in all seven states most likely to decide Senate control, including narrower leads in Alaska and Iowa, according to Zetik.
Beyond Iowa, the competitive map includes Alaska, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
Texas and Kansas
In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico is challenging Attorney General Ken Paxton, who won the nomination after beating Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff. The bitter primary left lingering divisions, and Cornyn has yet to fully rally behind Paxton. Trump has campaigned repeatedly in the state.
In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall faces Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor. The race has drawn heavy spending from both parties in a state Trump won by 16 points in 2024.
Alaska and Ohio
Alaska Senator Dan Sullivan is seeking re-election against former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola, who has raised $37 million to his nearly $14 million. The ballot includes another candidate also named Dan Sullivan, and Republicans accuse Democrats of trying to confuse voters under the state's ranked-choice system. Trump has accused Peltola's campaign of voter fraud, and Governor Mike Dunleavy has ordered an investigation.
In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is trying to win back the seat he lost in 2024, facing Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance. Outside spending in the race is approaching $400 million.
What Republicans Are Targeting
Republicans are also on offense in Democratic-held states. In Georgia, Representative Mike Collins is challenging Senator Jon Ossoff, who has drawn campaign help from former President Barack Obama. In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in an open-seat race. Minnesota, New Hampshire and Maine round out the battleground map.
Trump's approval stands at just 38 percent across the seven battleground states, Fox News polling found, while ForbesPredict puts Democratic odds of taking the Senate at 84 percent and the House at 83 percent, Forbes reported.
Why Senate Control Matters for Trump's Agenda
A Democratic Senate majority would constrain Trump's administration by blocking or delaying Cabinet nominees, ambassadors, federal judges and Supreme Court picks. It would also force the White House to negotiate with opposition lawmakers on legislation.
If Democrats also retake the House, they would gain subpoena power and the authority to demand documents and haul senior officials before congressional committees, making it far harder for Republicans to advance their agenda without Democratic support.
For Iowa voters, the stakes are direct: the Hinson-Turek race could help decide which party sets the Senate's agenda, confirms the president's judges and controls the pace of oversight in Washington for the next two years.
FAQ
Who is running for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat?
Republican Ashley Hinson, a U.S. representative, faces Democratic state Representative Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist, for the seat Joni Ernst is leaving.
What do the polls show in the Iowa Senate race?
CNN's Poll of Polls average shows Turek at 46 percent and Hinson at 45 percent, with no clear leader.
When did Iowa last elect a Democratic senator?
Iowa has not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, and Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024.