Iowa's U.S. Senate race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst is going down to the wire, with final polls showing Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek locked in a statistical dead heat one day before Election Day.
Out of six polls conducted in October and early November reviewed by Newsweek, neither candidate led by more than 3 percentage points, and every lead fell within the margin of error. Betting markets have even shifted toward Turek, with Kalshi News reporting the Democrat holding a 52 percent chance of winning the seat for the first time in the race.
What the final polls show
The tightest numbers come from the most recent surveys. A New York Times/Siena poll of 705 likely voters conducted between October 26 and November 1 put Turek at 48 percent and Hinson at 47 percent, within the poll's 4.4-point margin of error, according to The New York Times.
A YouGov poll of likely voters conducted October 26 through 29 gave Turek a 1-point edge, 50 percent to 49 percent. An Echelon Insights survey from mid-October showed Turek up 45 percent to 43 percent among 403 likely voters.
Hinson's strongest numbers came from an InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters taken October 21 and 22, which put her ahead 47 percent to 45 percent. An Emerson poll from early October showed the same 2-point margin.
The Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up, a striking designation for a state that has voted Republican in every Senate election since 2008 and that President Donald Trump carried in each of the last three election cycles.
Trump rallies Republicans in Dubuque
President Trump campaigned for Hinson and other Republican candidates in Dubuque the Sunday before Election Day, delivering a direct message to the party's base.
“We're going to elect 'America first' Republicans up and down the line,” Trump said at the rally.
Hinson, who holds Trump's endorsement, closed her campaign Monday with a “Fighting for Iowa” tour making stops in Fort Madison, Davenport and Des Moines. Turek's campaign released its closing ads last week, targeting Hinson's record while focusing on fuel and healthcare costs.
Why the race is this close
Democrats have made an unlikely play for the seat by pointing to economic pressure on Iowa farmers, including strains tied to Trump's trade tariffs and rising domestic fuel prices connected to the war in Iran. Those pressures have hit the state's agricultural community especially hard, and Turek's campaign has leaned into them in its final advertising push.
Hinson, for her part, broke with the president last month when she called for an “immediate end” to the conflict in Iran, saying Iowans were being “squeezed” economically by the war. She has also insisted she would not hesitate to challenge Trump when Iowa's interests are on the line.
Turek, a former wheelchair basketball athlete and state legislator from Council Bluffs, has run as a self-described “proud moderate” and has even praised Trump's handling of border security, an unusual move for a Democratic candidate that appears aimed at swing voters.
RealClearPolling has described Turek as a candidate with “a compelling story” and characterized the contest as a close race in its analysis of the seat Ernst has held since 2011.
High stakes beyond the Senate seat
The Senate contest is not the only prize on the ballot. Iowa Republicans are also fighting to hold the governor's office and three competitive U.S. House districts, making Tuesday one of the most consequential election days in the state in years.
Early voting has already been heavy. As of Sunday, roughly 464,008 early ballots had been returned, according to the independent election data aggregator Call the Map.
Polls across Iowa will be open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Central Time, according to the Iowa secretary of state's office.
Frequently asked questions
Who is leading in the Iowa Senate race?
No candidate has a clear lead. The six final polls reviewed by Newsweek show Josh Turek ahead in four surveys and Ashley Hinson ahead in two, with every lead within the margin of error.
When do Iowa polls close on Election Day?
Polls are open Tuesday from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Central Time, according to the Iowa secretary of state.
Whose Senate seat is on the ballot in Iowa?
The race is for the seat held by Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who is retiring. Iowa has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2008.