Democrat Josh Turek told supporters in the final hours of the Iowa Senate campaign that his race against Republican Ashley Hinson may be the tightest contest in the country, as both candidates made their closing pitches ahead of Election Day.
Speaking at a canvass launch in Le Mars on Monday, the state lawmaker from Council Bluffs framed the race as a chance for what he calls a generational change in Iowa politics. The seat is open because Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring, and outside groups on both sides have poured money into a race few expected to be competitive when the cycle began.
Turek calls the race the closest in the country
This may very well be the closest election on the entire U.S. Senate map, Turek said, surrounded by supporters at the Le Mars event, according to Aol's campaign report.
At a stop in a small western Iowa town, former Sen. Tom Harkin, the last Democrat Iowa sent to the Senate, showed Turek odds from the prediction market Kalshi that put Turek ahead of Hinson, 52% to 48%. Turek has likened himself to Harkin, calling the former senator a common-sense prairie populist.
Where Turek says he agrees with President Trump
Turek has not run away from President Donald Trump the way many Democrats do. He told CBS News on Monday that he would work with the president the same way he has worked across party lines in the Iowa legislature.
I don't believe that any party has a monopoly on good ideas, Turek said. And I've said openly that I agree with President Trump that we should have no tax on tips, overtime, Social Security, and driving private equity out of housing, for example.
Trump held his second Iowa rally in a matter of weeks on Sunday. Turek said it was good for the president to visit, arguing that Trump doesn't understand the challenges Iowans face, including what Turek described as the effects of healthcare cuts, tariffs, and the war in Iran on the state.
Hinson pitches herself as an Iowa fighter
Hinson, a Republican congresswoman, has campaigned as a minivan-driving mom ready to fight for Iowa. She pledged early in the campaign to be the president's top ally, though in recent weeks she has promised to push back on Trump when needed, including her call for the Iran war to come to an immediate and successful end to bring down energy prices.
In a recent interview with CBS News, Hinson called herself an Iowa common-sense conservative who is pro-Iowa no matter who is president. She has argued that Turek is too liberal for the state and has pledged to work with members of both parties to get results.
Closing arguments: affordability and agriculture
Turek's closing message on the airwaves has centered on high gas and diesel prices, which he has tied to Hinson, arguing she hasn't done enough to push back on tariffs and the war in Iran. He has also pointed to the state's cancer rates and, on Monday, rattled off a list of problems he said Iowa faces: a contracting economy, healthcare and water quality concerns, struggling public schools, farmers facing foreclosure, and high energy costs.
Every single way it's going in the wrong direction, Turek said. And there's a better way to do this.
He even invoked Ronald Reagan in his closing pitch, asking Iowans whether they are better off than they were four or six years ago, when Hinson first ran for federal office.
A personal story aimed at working Iowans
Turek, a former Paralympic wheelchair basketball player who grew up with spina bifida he attributes to his father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam, has pitched himself as a fighter for Iowans who have faced economic and health struggles of their own.
There's a lot of people in D.C. that come from wealth and privilege. I don't think there's a lot of places like where I come from, Council Bluffs, Iowa, Turek said.
Some voters at his stops responded to that message. Doug Zima, 76, of Onawa, praised Turek's openness to working with the president. I've never seen families not get along because of this silly Republican-Democrat division, and it needs to stop, Zima said. Dan Hicks, an independent voter, said he backs Turek because he actually talks more like me than a politician.
What's at stake for Iowa on Election Day
Iowa has moved sharply right in recent years after serving as a battleground, with Trump carrying the state by double digits in 2024. Still, as Bull Source reported, Democrats are openly talking this year about winning the governor's office, flipping several House seats, and taking the Senate seat Ernst is leaving, a possibility that seemed unthinkable at the start of the cycle.
As he rallied volunteers to knock doors, Turek kept the focus on the finish line. We just got today and tomorrow, he said. If we win this election here in Iowa, we will not only make a generational change to the state of Iowa, we will change this country.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat?
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek of Council Bluffs are competing for the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.
Why is the Iowa Senate race considered so close?
Prediction markets and both campaigns treat the race as one of the most competitive in the country, a shift for a state Trump won by double digits in 2024.
How has Ashley Hinson positioned herself in the race?
Hinson has campaigned as an Iowa common-sense conservative who supports the president while promising to push back when Iowa's interests are at stake, including calling for an end to the Iran war to lower energy prices.