Ashley Hinson trails Democrat Josh Turek by 2 points in Iowa's U.S. Senate race, according to new polling released Wednesday, October 21, 2026, by The Cook Political Report, a shift that has put the Republican incumbent's seat in serious question less than two weeks before Election Day.
The Cook survey of 602 likely Iowa voters, conducted October 9-13, shows Turek at 46 percent, Hinson at 44 percent, and Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn at 8 percent. The margin of error is 4 percent. Cook rates the race a toss-up, as does Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Independents Are the Problem for Hinson in Iowa
The poll's most striking number for Iowa Republicans is among independent voters. Turek leads Hinson 51 percent to 27 percent with independents, while 20 percent back Laehn. That 24-point gap suggests Hinson's path to victory runs through consolidating GOP support and winning back persuadable middle-of-the-road voters before November 3.
President Donald Trump carried Iowa in 2024, and midterm losses for the party in power are historically common. But the Cook findings, first reported by Newsweek on Wednesday, show the political environment has tightened in states Trump won, including Texas and Ohio alongside Iowa.
What the Cook Political Report Poll Found Nationwide
The Cook polling, conducted jointly by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, shows Democrats ahead in three Senate races the GOP hoped to hold. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 44 percent. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown leads Republican Jon Husted 49 percent to 43 percent.
Cook found all three Democrats more trusted on corruption, inflation, and gas and energy prices. Republicans held the edge on immigration and taxes. All three Democratic candidates are breaking even on favorability, while all three Republicans are underwater by double digits. Trump's net favorability is negative even in Texas.
According to the report, GOP pollster Greg Strimple of GS Strategies said the economic picture is dragging down Republican candidates nationwide.
The economic center of the American electorate is collapsing on Republicans, said Strimple in the Cook report. Voters are so upset with the lack of leadership on reducing their cost of living, they appear willing to propel Democrats to upset victories in reliably Republican states despite the fact that Democrats are less popular than either President Trump or Republicans. The level of voter discontent is truly unprecedented.
Other Iowa Polling Shows a Mixed Picture
The Cook result is not the only recent reading of the Iowa Senate race, and other surveys tell a different story. A co/efficient poll of 863 likely voters conducted October 15-19, after Cook's fieldwork, showed Hinson ahead 48 percent to 45 percent, with 2 percent for Laehn and 6 percent undecided. That poll's margin of error is 3.32 percent.
A YouGov survey of 2,245 likely Iowa voters from October 6-12 put Turek at 47 percent and Hinson at 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided and a 3.1 percent margin of error. Polling in the race has bounced back and forth for weeks, with both candidates narrowly holding leads at various points.
Prediction markets currently side with Hinson. As of Wednesday afternoon, Kalshi gave Hinson a 57 percent chance of winning to Turek's 43 percent, and Polymarket put Hinson at 56 percent to Turek's 44 percent.
Governor's Race Polling Also Raises Red Flags for Iowa GOP
The same Cook poll surveyed Iowa's race for governor, and the results there are more lopsided. Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 54 percent to 43 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Among independents, Sand leads 68 percent to 26 percent.
Those numbers, if they hold, would represent a dramatic shift in a state Trump won comfortably two years ago and where Republicans control the governor's office and the state legislature.
What Happens Next in the Final Two Weeks
Trump has been campaigning across the country for vulnerable GOP candidates in the run-up to November 3, and his approval ratings on the economy, immigration, and energy prices have slipped as voters keep flagging affordability concerns. Whether that translates into Republican losses in Iowa depends heavily on turnout, which is why the final stretch of early voting matters.
Newsweek reached out to the Hinson, Paxton, and Husted campaigns Wednesday for comment.
Robert Y. Shapiro, a political science professor at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, told Newsweek the polling confirms Democrats are competitive for Senate control.
If their turnout edge in early voting continues, even if somewhat less so, on election day, they would likely have a very good day and outcomes in the House, Senate, and certain races for governor, Shapiro said.
Grant Davis Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, offered a more cautious read, telling Newsweek the polling is the best snapshot available but that known unknowns remain, including whether Republicans frustrated with Trump will come home on Election Day.
It's not in the bank yet, except for Democrats taking the majority in the House. That is pretty much in the bank. But the Senate is still open, Reeher said.
For Iowa voters, the practical takeaway is simple: the Senate race between Hinson and Turek is a genuine toss-up, and with polls this close, turnout on November 3 will decide which party controls the seat Chuck Grassley once made a Republican stronghold.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Iowa Senate race between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson?
The Cook Political Report poll released October 21, 2026 shows Turek ahead 46 percent to 44 percent, but a co/efficient poll conducted days later shows Hinson up 48 percent to 45 percent. Prediction markets favor Hinson.
How does the Iowa governor's race poll?
The Cook poll shows Democrat Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn 54 percent to 43 percent.
When is the 2026 midterm election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.