A new YouGov poll shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson by a single point in Iowa's open U.S. Senate race, a survey that also suggests the Council Bluffs lawmaker is pulling support from Iowans who voted for President Donald Trump in 2024.
The poll, conducted from October 6 to October 12 among 2,245 likely Iowa voters, put Turek at 47 percent and Hinson at 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 3.1 percent, meaning the race remains a statistical dead heat less than three weeks before Election Day. Newsweek first reported the results on October 14.
Turek's Narrow Lead and the Trump Voter Question
The numbers raise a warning sign for Republicans. Among those surveyed, 52 percent said they voted for Trump in 2024, while 41 percent backed former Vice President Kamala Harris. If Turek holds a lead in a sample with that makeup, he is winning over at least some voters who supported the president two years ago.
That pattern fits Turek's political biography. As The Gazette reported, Turek first won his western Iowa House seat in 2022 by just six votes in a district Trump carried comfortably, then expanded his margin in 2024 while running ahead of the top of the Democratic ticket in one of the reddest districts represented by a Democrat in Des Moines.
Over the summer, Turek began airing ads saying 'both parties have failed to fix' the nation's broken immigration system, adding that in the Senate he would 'work with anyone to fix it, including President Trump,' according to Yahoo News. The Paralympic gold medalist also beat state Senator Zach Wahls in the Democratic primary, 63 percent to 37 percent.
Where the Polls Disagree
The YouGov result is far from settled consensus. Polling in this race has swung in both directions since September.
Surveys favoring Turek include a Marist University poll from September 17 to September 20 that gave him an 8-point lead, 50 percent to 42 percent. A Suffolk University poll from October 1 to October 4 put him ahead 48 percent to 44 percent, and a Beacon Research poll from late September showed him up 49 percent to 47 percent. An InsiderAdvantage survey on September 22 and September 23 had Turek ahead by one.
Hinson, however, has led in several recent surveys. An Emerson College poll on October 5 and October 6 put her ahead 47 percent to 45 percent. A CNN poll from September 29 to October 5 gave her a 2-point edge, as did two Quantus Insights polls in late September. A New York Times/Siena University poll from September 22 to October 1 showed Hinson up by one.
Prediction markets are less equivocal. Both Polymarket and Kalshi give Hinson a comfortable edge, with Polymarket showing her favored at 57 percent to Turek's 42 percent and Kalshi at 58 percent to 42 percent.
What the Debates Covered
The YouGov survey wrapped the day before Turek and Hinson met for their second debate on Tuesday night, so the results do not reflect anything from that matchup. Their first debate, held last week, centered on tariffs, immigration and the candidates' voting records, with both trading sharp criticism over Iowa's economy and the path forward as voters press about inflation and fuel costs.
Trump Approval Numbers in the Poll
The same YouGov survey asked Iowans about the president's job performance, and the results were mixed. A combined 46 percent approved, with 29 percent strongly approving and 17 percent somewhat approving. On the other side, 54 percent disapproved, including 49 percent who strongly disapproved. One percent was unsure.
Those figures will fuel Democratic optimism in a state Trump carried in the last three presidential cycles, though Iowa has swung between parties before. Former President Barack Obama won the state twice.
Why This Seat Matters for Senate Control
The race is for the seat held by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst, and it is one of the most competitive Senate contests on the 2026 map. Republicans are working to hold control of the House and Senate amid voter frustration over inflation, fuel prices and the Iran war, and Iowa has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, when incumbent Tom Harkin defeated Republican Christopher Reed.
Since then, Ernst and Senator Chuck Grassley have held both of Iowa's Senate seats. A Turek win would break an 18-year Republican run and could shape the chamber's balance of power for the next two years.
What Happens Next
Early voting in Iowa opened Tuesday and runs through November 2. Election Day is November 3. With the race inside the margin of error in the latest poll and both campaigns fighting over the state's economy, turnout in the closing weeks will decide who claims Ernst's seat.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is leading the Iowa Senate race?
The most recent YouGov poll, released October 14, shows Josh Turek at 47 percent and Ashley Hinson at 46 percent, a 1-point lead within the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error. Other recent polls have shown Hinson ahead, and prediction markets favor her.
When is the Iowa Senate election?
Election Day is November 3, 2026. Early voting began October 14 and continues through November 2.
Whose Senate seat is on the ballot in Iowa?
The open seat belongs to Republican Senator Joni Ernst, who is retiring. Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are running to replace her.