Iowa's Senate race between Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek is one of eight toss-up contests that could decide control of the Senate on November 3, with polling averages showing the two candidates separated by less than two points.
According to The Financial Express, forecasters at Silver Bulletin, VoteHub and Decision Desk HQ all list Iowa among the closest Senate races in the country, alongside Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, South Carolina and Texas. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the chamber, and Democrats need to flip four seats, while defending all of their own, to take control, as The New York Times has reported.
Where the Iowa race stands right now
Silver Bulletin's polling average, cited by Newsweek, puts Turek ahead by 1.2 percentage points, with 46.8 percent support to Hinson's 45.6 percent. VoteHub shows an even tighter gap of 0.3 points for the Democratic candidate.
Decision Desk HQ sees the race differently. Its model projects Hinson to finish one point ahead, though the outlet still classifies the contest as a toss-up.
The spread between the polling averages and the forecast models illustrates how much uncertainty remains in the final days. Small polling errors, late shifts in voter sentiment and turnout could each move the result.
Who are Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek?
Hinson worked as a television news reporter before entering politics and has represented eastern Iowa in Congress. She is campaigning to keep the seat in Republican hands as the party defends its Senate majority.
Turek has won two Paralympic gold medals in wheelchair basketball and is making his case to Iowa voters as a challenger in a race that national forecasters consider a pure toss-up.
The national picture: what the forecasts show
The Financial Express, citing figures reported by Newsweek, notes that Democrats have a 95 percent chance of winning the House and a 76.4 percent chance of taking the Senate according to the Silver Bulletin forecast. Other forecasting platforms are more cautious.
VoteHub gives Democrats a 60 percent chance of controlling the Senate and projects a 52-48 split. Decision Desk HQ puts the probability of Democratic control at 57 percent and projects the party will hold 51 seats after running one million simulations.
The Guardian reports that the Cook Political Report lists seven seats as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. The battle for the Senate is being fought across a small map of states, many of them places where Democrats have rarely been competitive in recent years, as Yahoo News has noted.
The other seven battlegrounds
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman and the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 3.5 points in the Silver Bulletin average. President Donald Trump raised concerns on Truth Social about a second Republican candidate also named Dan Sullivan appearing on the ballot.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, who founded a Methodist megachurch, is challenging Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century. Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 65 percent chance of holding the seat.
In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads Republican Senator Jon Husted by 3.7 points in a special election for the seat Husted was appointed to after JD Vance vacated it. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former president of the Maine Senate, leads Republican Senator Susan Collins by 2.8 points as she seeks a sixth term.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director, leads Republican Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and former House Intelligence Committee chairman, by three points. In South Carolina, Republican Darline Graham leads Democrat Annie Andrews by 1.7 points in the race to succeed the late Senator Lindsey Graham. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Senator Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, by 2.4 points in a contest Decision Desk HQ calls a toss-up.
Why Senate control matters for the Trump agenda
The midterms give voters a chance to change the balance of power in Congress without changing the president. Historically, the president's party has often suffered losses in midterm elections.
A shift in Senate control would determine which party leads key committees, sets the legislative agenda and conducts oversight of the Trump administration during the final two years of the president's term. For Iowa Republicans, the Hinson-Turek race is the front line of that fight, and the winner could help decide whether the GOP agenda moves forward or stalls in a Democratic-led chamber.
Polls do not guarantee results, as the wide variation between forecasting models shows. Voters head to the polls on November 3 to elect members of Congress and settle which party controls the House and Senate for the next two years.
Frequently asked questions
Who is running for Senate in Iowa in 2026?
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are competing for Iowa's Senate seat in the November 3 election.
Who is leading the Iowa Senate race?
Silver Bulletin's polling average shows Turek ahead by 1.2 points, while Decision Desk HQ projects Hinson to finish one point ahead. All major forecasters classify the race as a toss-up.
How many Senate seats are up for grabs in the 2026 midterms?
Control of the Senate hinges on eight closely contested races in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, South Carolina and Texas, with Republicans currently holding a 53-47 majority.