Iowa's congressional race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Representative Ashley Hinson is one of the tightest contests in the country heading into the November 3 midterm elections, with polling averages separating the two candidates by barely a point.
According to noopener>TimesNow, which compiled the latest forecasts on October 25, Democrats are strongly positioned to take the U.S. House of Representatives, while the Senate fight remains genuinely competitive. The Silver Bulletin forecast gives Democrats a 95% chance of winning the House and a 76.4% chance of Senate control, though other models, including VoteHub, Decision Desk HQ and RealClearPolling, show a much closer battle for the upper chamber.
The Iowa race: a coin flip with 10 days to go
Silver Bulletin's polling average puts Turek ahead of Hinson by 1.2 percentage points, 46.8% to 45.6%. That is hardly a cushion. VoteHub shows the gap at just 0.3 points, and Decision Desk HQ actually projects a narrow Hinson victory while classifying the race as a toss-up.
For Iowa voters, the message from the numbers is simple: every vote in this race will matter. A shift of a few thousand votes either way could decide who represents the district in Washington for the next two years.
Turek is a two-time Paralympic wheelchair-basketball gold medalist. Hinson worked as a television news reporter before entering Congress, where she has been a reliable conservative voice on agriculture, energy and family issues that matter to Iowans.
Why the Senate majority hangs in the balance
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, and the midterms will decide which party controls Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's current term. Eight states, including Iowa's neighbors and key battlegrounds like Alaska, Kansas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, South Carolina and Texas, feature Senate races separated by fewer than four percentage points, according to Silver Bulletin's polling averages.
Silver Bulletin's model, updated October 22, projected an average Senate division of 52 Democrats to 48 Republicans. VoteHub gives Democrats a 60% chance of controlling the chamber, while Decision Desk HQ puts the probability at 57%, projecting a 51-seat majority after one million simulations.
Harvard University's noopener>ElectIt forecasting project offers a similar picture, with a median forecast of 239 House seats and 52 Senate seats for Democrats, and notes that the median polling error in elections since 1950 has been 2 points in either direction.
Other races that could decide control
In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by 3.5 points in Silver Bulletin's average, though RealClearPolling narrows that to 1.2 points. The race is complicated by ranked-choice voting and the presence of another Republican candidate also named Dan Sullivan, an issue Trump has raised publicly.
In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton, founder of a Methodist megachurch, holds a 1.1-point lead over Republican Senator Roger Marshall in Silver Bulletin's average, but Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 65% chance of holding the seat. Hamilton is pitching himself as a moderate in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.
Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads appointed Republican Senator Jon Husted by 3.7 points in Ohio's special election. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president and fifth-generation logger, leads Senator Susan Collins by 2.8 points as she seeks a sixth term.
Michigan's Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a three-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent. In South Carolina, Republican Darline Graham leads Democrat Annie Andrews by 1.7 points. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2.4 points in a race Decision Desk HQ calls a toss-up. Paxton was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 over allegations he misused his office to help a donor; the state Senate acquitted him.
Polls are snapshots, not guarantees
Newsweek, noopener>reporting on the same forecasts, echoed the finding that Democrats hold the stronger hand in the House while the Senate remains contested. LSE's noopener>citizen forecasting research found 39% of citizens predict Democrats will win both chambers, though that reflects perception as much as probability.
Polling averages measure voter preferences at a moment in time. Forecasts add factors like incumbency, political conditions and uncertainty, which is why the models disagree. Polymarket's noopener>election odds tracker notes national polling averages show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by roughly 6 to 7 points, with President Trump's job approval in the high 30s.
With 10 days remaining, the outcomes in these eight states, and in Iowa's House race, remain sensitive to polling errors, turnout and late shifts in voter preferences. No single model can guarantee the result.
What happens next?
The elections take place November 3, with control of both chambers of Congress at stake. For Iowa Republicans, the Hinson-Turek race is the clearest example of how narrow margins this cycle are, and why turnout in the final stretch will decide who holds the majority in Washington.
Who is leading the Iowa race between Josh Turek and Ashley Hinson?
Turek leads by 1.2 percentage points in Silver Bulletin's polling average, but VoteHub puts the gap at 0.3 points and Decision Desk HQ projects a narrow Hinson win. The race is rated a toss-up.
When are the 2026 midterm elections?
Election day is November 3, 2026, with control of both the House and Senate at stake.
Which party is favored to win Congress?
Forecasts give Democrats a strong chance of winning the House. The Senate is closer, with Silver Bulletin giving Democrats a 76.4% chance and other models showing a tighter race.