Bill O'Brien predicted to be first college football coach fired in 2026
By John Damon | Just The News Iowa
As college football enters the 2026 season, the pressure is on for several high-profile coaches. But according to a recent analysis, Boston College head coach Bill O'Brien is the most likely candidate to be the first fired this fall. With a brutal early schedule and a struggling offense, O'Brien's tenure in Chestnut Hill appears fragile.
Why Bill O'Brien is on the hot seat
O'Brien, who previously coached the Houston Texans in the NFL, won seven games in his first season at Boston College in 2024. But the Eagles collapsed in 2025, winning just two games and losing 10 straight between their opener and finale. The rapid decline has put O'Brien squarely on the hot seat entering the 2026 campaign.
The schedule offers little relief. Boston College opens at Cincinnati on Sept. 5, then hosts Rutgers on Sept. 11 for the Red Bandanna Game, held on the 25th anniversary of Sept. 11. Virginia Tech visits Chestnut Hill on Sept. 26, followed by a road trip to SMU on Oct. 3. Maine is the only certain win in the first five games, meaning a 1-4 start is realistic.
The Eagles' bye week falls on Oct. 10, giving Boston College athletic director Blake James time to act before the next game. That timing makes O'Brien the most vulnerable coach in the country.
Other coaches on the hot seat
While O'Brien leads the list, several other Power Four coaches face intense pressure. Mike Norvell at Florida State has a 7-17 record over the past two seasons and a 5.0 hot-seat rating from CBS Sports, the worst possible mark. However, his $50 million buyout likely protects him into November.
Dave Aranda at Baylor has four losing seasons in six years. The Bears added former five-star quarterback DJ Lagway via the transfer portal, but a brutal closing stretch against BYU, Texas Tech, and Houston could seal his fate.
Luke Fickell at Wisconsin is 17-21 and has won fewer games each season, totaling just four wins in 2025. The Badgers open against Notre Dame at Lambeau Field on Sept. 6, then travel to Penn State on Sept. 26. Later games at UCLA and at Iowa could determine his future.
Mike Locksley at Maryland has posted back-to-back 4-8 seasons. The Terps face a brutal October stretch at Nebraska and Ohio State, but their bye does not come until Oct. 24, delaying any decision.
What this means for Iowa fans
For Iowa Hawkeyes fans, the coaching carousel is more than just national gossip. Wisconsin's struggles under Fickell could benefit Iowa in the Big Ten West race. The Badgers visit Kinnick Stadium on Nov. 14, a game that could have major implications for both teams' seasons.
Additionally, the instability at programs like Boston College and Maryland could create opportunities for Iowa in recruiting. When programs struggle, top talent often looks elsewhere, and Iowa's consistent, disciplined program under Kirk Ferentz remains an attractive option.
As the 2026 season unfolds, Iowa fans should keep an eye on the coaching carousel. The first firing could come as early as October, and it might just be Bill O'Brien.
FAQ: College football coaching hot seats in 2026
Who is the most likely college football coach to be fired first in 2026?
Bill O'Brien at Boston College is the most likely candidate. His team lost 10 straight games in 2025, and the 2026 schedule features four losable games in the first five weeks. The bye week on Oct. 10 gives the administration time to act.
How does the coaching carousel affect Iowa?
Iowa benefits from stability under Kirk Ferentz. Struggles at programs like Wisconsin and Maryland could help Iowa in the Big Ten West race and in recruiting battles.
What is Bill O'Brien's record at Boston College?
O'Brien went 7-6 in his first season (2024) and 2-10 in 2025. The Eagles lost 10 straight games between their opener and finale last year.
Why hasn't Mike Norvell been fired yet at Florida State?
Mike Norvell has a $50 million buyout, making it financially difficult for Florida State to fire him. Despite a 7-17 record over the past two seasons, the buyout protects him into November.