The Iowa Hawkeyes picked up their seventh win of the season on Saturday night, and with three games remaining on the schedule, the question in Iowa City is no longer whether the Hawkeyes can reach 10 wins. It is whether 10 wins will be enough to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.
According to Yahoo Sports, which laid out Iowa's path to the postseason in detail this week, the honest answer is that the Hawkeyes will probably need some help. Iowa sits at No. 19 in the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, The Gazette reported, leaving the Hawkeyes on the outside looking in with three weeks to play.
Why 10 Wins Might Not Be Enough
The problem, as Yahoo Sports put it plainly, is that Iowa would be a 10-win Big Ten team with no signature victories and one bad loss. The loss to Minnesota stings, and it looks worse every week. The Gophers were blown out by Mississippi State to open the season. Iowa also fell to an Ohio State team that is trending downward, which means the Buckeyes win over the Hawkeyes no longer carries the weight it once did.
The 12-team format reserves four spots for Power Four conference champions and one for the top Group of Six representative. Notre Dame, after beating Miami, is essentially penciled into the field barring a late collapse. That leaves six at-large spots, and the math gets tight in a hurry.
The At-Large Math
At least three of those six at-large spots are effectively spoken for by SEC teams, no matter how much fans in the Midwest grumble about it. One spot goes to a second Big Ten team, another to the Big 12. That leaves a single remaining at-large slot, and four contenders for it: a third Big Ten team, a second Big 12 team, a fifth SEC team, or the ACC runner-up. Three of those four options lose out.
Iowa's best hope is that the Big Ten lands that third spot, because a 10-win Hawkeyes team that runs the table would be in strong position to claim it.
What Iowa Controls
Two things remain fully in Kirk Ferentz's hands. First, win out. Iowa will be favored in all three remaining games, starting with Purdue next week, where the Hawkeyes are laying 16.5 points. A road trip to Illinois follows, then the season finale against Nebraska, where a similar double-digit spread is expected.
Second, and this is the part Ferentz famously dislikes, style points matter. Grinding out three-point wins over Purdue and Nebraska will not move the needle with the selection committee. Yahoo Sports argued Iowa needs to win decisively, and ideally take an early lead, so the people who matter are actually watching when the games are decided.
Big Ten Scenarios: Root Against USC and Oregon
Inside the conference, 9-0 UCLA and 8-1 Indiana have the clearest roads to the Big Ten Championship Game, and Hawkeye fans should be pulling for both. Neither plays Iowa, and neither would block the Hawkeyes from claiming a third Big Ten bid.
The real threat is USC. The Trojans are 7-2, and their resume compares favorably to Iowa's. Their loss to Wisconsin is not as damaging as Iowa's loss to Minnesota, their loss to Oregon is respectable, and they own a win over Ohio State, which is more than Iowa can say. If USC wins out by beating Indiana, Maryland and UCLA, a 10-2 Trojan team beats a 10-2 Iowa team, as Yahoo Sports put it, every single time.
Iowa fans also want Oregon to stumble. The Ducks close against Michigan, Michigan State and Washington, all winnable games, and a nine-win Oregon with a blowout win over Ohio State on its resume could complicate things. Ohio State and Illinois remain lurking at 6-3, though the Hawkeyes control their own fate against the Illini in two weeks.
Big 12 and SEC Rooting Guide
The Big 12 is a lock to get a second at-large bid, and a third Big 12 team is the biggest threat to a third Big Ten bid. Undefeated Utah, 8-1 Texas Tech and 7-2 BYU and Houston are all in the mix, and Yahoo Sports noted the realistic hope is simply that Big Ten influence outweighs Big 12 politics in the committee room.
In the SEC, the goal is fewer nine-win teams. Iowa fans should pull for Georgia, which closes against South Carolina, Missouri and Georgia Tech and could eliminate two rivals by itself. Alabama should win out, even if that pains Hawkeye fans. The messy middle scenario, four 10-win SEC teams plus a couple of nine-win teams, still gives a 10-win Iowa a reasonable shot at the nod.
In the ACC, root for Miami over Wake Forest in the conference title game. An 11-1 Miami beats Iowa. An 11-1 Wake Forest probably does not.
What the Oddsmakers Say
The betting markets split the difference. Kalshi gives Iowa a 33 percent chance of making the Playoff, 12th best in the country. DraftKings is more bearish, listing the Hawkeyes at plus-205 for 15th-best odds. AtoZ Sports puts Iowa 13th with a 36 percent chance.
Columnist Mike Hlas of Hawk Fanatic is more optimistic, arguing that Iowa is headed for the Playoff regardless of the variables still in play.
The bottom line for Hawkeye fans over the next three weeks: win out, win big, and root hard against USC, Oregon, and any SEC chaos that produces a pile of nine-win teams. The playoff outlook from Black Heart Gold Pants traces the same path, and it runs straight through Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does Iowa need to do to make the College Football Playoff?
Iowa must win its final three games against Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska, and win them decisively to impress the selection committee.
What teams should Iowa fans root against?
USC and Oregon are the biggest threats, followed by a potential third Big 12 at-large team and any nine-win SEC teams.
What are Iowa's current Playoff odds?
Kalshi puts Iowa's chances at 33 percent, DraftKings lists the Hawkeyes at plus-205, and AtoZ Sports gives them a 36 percent shot.