Five of the top seven teams in the AP Top 25 lost on Saturday, marking the first time that has ever happened in a single weekend, yet the chaos of Week 7 knocked only a handful of programs out of the College Football Playoff race entirely. For Iowa fans, the headline is simple: the Hawkeyes are still in the hunt.
According to Sports Illustrated's weekly CFP Eliminator, 50 teams remain alive for a playoff bid after Week 7, roughly 36 percent of the Football Bowl Subdivision. The site counts 11 Big Ten programs, including Iowa, among those still standing with two or fewer overall losses.
Iowa Hawkeyes remain in the playoff conversation
The Big Ten emerged from the weekend largely unscathed compared to the SEC and other leagues. While upsets rippled across the country, the conference avoided the carnage that claimed contenders elsewhere. Indiana's long winning streak ended by inches against Ohio State, but even that result left the Hoosiers' hopes intact.
For Iowa, the math is straightforward. The Hawkeyes sit among a large group of Big Ten teams controlling their own path to Indianapolis, where a conference title game victory would deliver an automatic bid to the 12-team field. Sports Illustrated notes that the list of programs still alive for a trip to the Big Ten championship game is even longer than the list of teams with realistic playoff resumes at this point.
That depth cuts both ways. Eleven Big Ten teams with two or fewer losses means the conference could plausibly land multiple at-large bids, but it also means Iowa has little room for a slip-up in the season's second half.
Iowa State Cyclones eliminated from CFP contention
The news is not as good in Ames. Sports Illustrated lists Iowa State among the programs already out of the playoff chase, part of the 88 FBS teams, 64 percent of the division, whose championship hopes are finished in mid-October.
The Cyclones join Colorado, Kansas, TCU, UCF and West Virginia as Big 12 programs whose playoff paths have closed. The Big 12 itself is thriving otherwise, with three of the country's five undefeated teams and four of the top 15 in the polls. BYU boosted the league's profile with a marquee nonconference win over Notre Dame on Saturday.
SEC contenders on thin ice after upsets
The weekend's biggest winners may have been the Big Ten and Big 12 at the expense of the SEC. Alabama, Mississippi State, Missouri and Texas all lost, and while none of those defeats was fatal, each pushed a contender onto what Sports Illustrated called really thin ice.
ESPN's playoff bubble watch reports that Alabama's margin for error is nearly gone after two SEC losses by mid-October, which have significantly diminished the Tide's chances of reaching the conference championship game.
Oklahoma became the SEC's first elimination. The Sooners lost at home to Kentucky, adding a defeat that Sports Illustrated described as dreadful for their at-large hopes, with a nonconference loss to a struggling Michigan team compounding the damage. The site raised larger questions about the direction of the program under coach Brent Venables.
Notre Dame faces a must-win against Miami
The Fighting Irish fell at BYU in the final seconds, and the loss turned their November home game against Miami into what amounts to a playoff elimination game. Sports Illustrated warns that if Notre Dame does not beat the Hurricanes in South Bend, the Irish could finish the season without a single win over a ranked opponent.
Athlon Sports' bowl projections show the fallout, with BYU climbing into the projected top four seeds and Notre Dame tumbling into a first-round game. Texas fell out of the projected playoff field entirely after losing to Florida.
Why the 24-team playoff could end weekends like this
Week 7 arrived just days after it became clear the 12-team playoff will expand to 24 teams in 2027. Yahoo Sports noted that Saturday's stakes may be the last of their kind, observing that the 12-team format had struck a rare balance between keeping regular season games meaningful and offering an inclusive postseason.
That expansion news gave the weekend an extra edge. Every upset carried real weight, and the possibility of a two-loss team missing the bracket kept the tension high across every conference. Whether a 24-team field preserves that drama or waters it down will be debated for the next year, but Iowa fans can enjoy the present format while their team still controls its own fate.
Small-conference races tighten in the Group of 6
The race for the Group of 6 bid, which sends one champion from outside the power leagues to the playoff, tightened considerably. Boise State, Oregon State, Western Michigan, Air Force, New Mexico, North Dakota State, Memphis, North Texas, UTSA and James Madison all remain alive.
James Madison had a week to remember, announcing a future move to the American Athletic Conference, beating Georgia State to firm up its grip on the Sun Belt East, and staying on the heels of Boise State and New Mexico in the Group of 6 race. NBC Sports reported that the Dukes are 7-0 under coach Billy Napier and the clear favorites to win the Sun Belt.
Georgia State became the Sun Belt's first elimination after a 49-22 loss to James Madison, though Sports Illustrated noted that simply having the Panthers in the playoff conversation in mid-October reflects how far the program has come this season.
What happens next
With no teams yet locked into the bracket, the field remains wide open heading into late October. Iowa's remaining schedule will determine whether the Hawkeyes can turn a live playoff chance into a trip to Indianapolis, while Iowa State plays out the string for bowl positioning. The Mountain West faces a pivotal weekend that could sort out its conference race, and Notre Dame's visit from Miami next month now carries playoff stakes that few November games in South Bend have matched.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Iowa still in the College Football Playoff race?
Yes. Sports Illustrated's Week 7 Eliminator lists Iowa among 11 Big Ten teams still alive for a playoff bid, with 50 FBS programs remaining in contention overall.
Is Iowa State eliminated from the playoff?
Yes. The Cyclones are listed among the 88 FBS teams out of the playoff chase after Week 7.
How many teams make the College Football Playoff?
The current format includes 12 teams. The playoff is set to expand to 24 teams beginning in 2027.
Which SEC teams were hurt most by Week 7 losses?
Oklahoma was eliminated, while Alabama, Mississippi State, Missouri and Texas saw their playoff chances put on thin ice, according to Sports Illustrated and ESPN.