Iowa's 40-point outburst in Friday's upset win over Washington has the Hawkeyes sitting at +375 to reach the College Football Playoff, and the Week 7 betting market suggests oddsmakers may be underrating the black and gold.
According to Yahoo Sports betting analyst Matt Russell, who published his Week 7 odds and storylines file on Oct. 13, Iowa's path to the 12-team field is arguably cleaner than UCLA's, yet the Bruins are priced shorter at +115. The question Russell posed is one Hawkeye fans are happy to entertain: why is Iowa that much less likely to sneak into the top 12?
Iowa's Playoff Path Opens Wide After Week 6
The Hawkeyes rolled past Washington on Friday, Oct. 10, in a performance that surprised even the market. Russell noted that defense and special teams have been Iowa's specialty forever, so cruising to 40 points was the shock of the night.
The schedule ahead softens the argument against the Hawkeyes. Per Yahoo Sports, the only currently ranked team left on Iowa's schedule is No. 25 Northwestern. That is the kind of closing stretch that turns a 5-1 start into a legitimate playoff résumé, a case we laid out in our look at why Iowa's playoff hopes rest on the run game.
Iowa also sits No. 3 in Big Ten power rankings with a 10-2 path in sight, a standing that looked far-fetched before the season kicked off.
Week 6 Chaos Reshaped the Rankings
Iowa was not the only team that shook up the board. No. 1 Texas fell to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, a result Russell flagged as a possibility a week earlier. The Sooners, previously as long as 4-to-1 to make the playoff, cashed on the moneyline behind defense and special teams and saved their season.
Oregon stumbled through one of the ugliest games of the year after chasing a failed 2-point conversion all afternoon, and UCLA's path opened when USC knocked Ducks quarterback Dante Moore out of the lineup. The Bruins are now 5-0 with a +115 playoff price, though they may have to navigate the stretch without starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who is out indefinitely.
Kentucky keeps taking down supposedly better teams, beating LSU in overtime and pushing the Tigers to -250 to miss the playoff. Florida, after a blowout home loss to South Carolina, is now -1000 to miss the field.
Ohio State at Indiana Headlines Week 7
The game everyone circled months ago arrives Saturday, Oct. 17: No. 4 Ohio State visits No. 5 Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 51, according to ESPN's Week 7 lines. It is a rematch of last season's Big Ten Championship Game, and CBS Sports notes it marks Ohio State's first trip to Bloomington since Curt Cignetti took over the Hoosiers program.
Sports Illustrated reports Ohio State enters at 5-1 overall and 3-0 in the Big Ten, while Indiana sits at 6-0 and 3-0 in conference play. The winner becomes a significant favorite to claim the conference title.
Russell's recommendation: take Indiana plus the points. He argues the line shifted from a summer pick-em to Hoosiers catching 3.5 at home, which implies the Buckeyes are nearly a full touchdown better, a rating Ohio State has not earned since blowing a three-score lead at Texas. His bet: Indiana +3.5.
Other Week 7 Picks From the Market Watchers
Russell also likes Alabama laying 8.5 at Tennessee, reasoning that the market never downgraded the Tide after the narrow loss to Georgia and that a second defeat would gut their playoff hopes. He projects urgency in Knoxville.
In the SEC's other marquee game, he backs Ole Miss minus 6 at home against Missouri, expecting the Rebels' offense to expose a Tigers defense that has mostly faced one-dimensional attacks.
He takes Oklahoma minus 7 against Kentucky, figuring the Wildcats have little left after back-to-back overtime wins while the Sooners come off a bye and a season-saving upset. In the Big 12, he grabs Oklahoma State plus 4.5 at Houston, and in the week's feature game he takes BYU plus 10 at home against No. 2 Notre Dame, calling the Cougars chronically underrated at 5-0 against the spread.
What It Means for Iowa Fans
The Hawkeyes control their own November, and the market has noticed even if it has not fully priced them in. At +375, a $100 playoff ticket on Iowa pays $375, a number that could shrink fast if the Hawkeyes keep winning while ranked teams around them fall.
Week 6 already took down No. 1 Texas and jumbled the SEC. As we covered in our recap of Week 6 chaos, Iowa is still alive, and every upset elsewhere in the top 25 widens the door in Iowa City.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Iowa's odds to make the College Football Playoff?
According to Yahoo Sports, the Hawkeyes are +375 to reach the 12-team field after their Oct. 10 upset win over Washington.
Who is favored in Ohio State versus Indiana in Week 7?
Ohio State is a 3.5-point road favorite at Indiana, with the total set at 51, per ESPN's Week 7 betting lines published ahead of the Oct. 17 game.
Which ranked teams remain on Iowa's schedule?
No. 25 Northwestern is the only currently ranked team left on Iowa's schedule, according to Yahoo Sports.