College Football 2026: CFP Predictions, Dark Horses and Iowa's Road to the Playoff

The most wonderful time of the year is here: college football season. For Iowa fans, that means Hawkeye football, tailgates in Iowa City, and the annual hope that this is the year it all comes together. But beyond the black and gold, the 2026 College Football Playoff picture is taking shape with a 12-team field, a few format tweaks, and plenty of intriguing storylines that could impact the Midwest and beyond.

The national championship game will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Monday, Jan. 25. Before we get there, here's a breakdown of what to expect this season, including the teams to watch, the dark horses, and how the new playoff rules could shake things up.

What's New in the 2026 College Football Playoff Format?

The College Football Playoff remains a 12-team field in 2026, though expansion discussions are ongoing. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions are all guaranteed spots, as is Notre Dame if it finishes in the top 12. The highest-ranked Group of Six team also earns an automatic berth.

Had those rules been in place last year, ACC winners Duke and Notre Dame would have clinched playoff spots, while Miami, which lost to Indiana in the national championship game, would have been left out. That's a significant change that could impact how teams schedule and position themselves throughout the season.

Which Teams Are Locked Into the Playoff Conversation?

Entering the 2026 season, a handful of programs appear all but guaranteed to reach the College Football Playoff barring catastrophic injuries or off-field disasters. The top seven in this year's AP Poll, released on Aug. 17, are simply better than everyone else right now thanks to high-level coaching, top-notch player acquisition and a history of shrewd portal evaluations.

Those schools are Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana and Miami. Beneath them are a slew of worthy contenders who, if certain conditions are met, can crash the party. This group includes the oft-discussed second tier of both the Big Ten and SEC, the sport's preeminent conferences, and a handful of dark horses from the Big 12, ACC and Group of Six.

Projected 12-Team Playoff Field for 2026

FOX Sports analysts have offered several projections for the 12-team field. Here's a look at some of the most compelling predictions:

• Projection 1: Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Indiana, Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Texas Tech, USC, BYU, Ole Miss, Boise State
• Projection 2: Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Indiana, Notre Dame, Georgia, Miami, Texas Tech, USC, LSU, Ole Miss, North Dakota State
• Projection 3: Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, Notre Dame, Texas, Indiana, Miami, Texas Tech, LSU, Oklahoma, SMU, Boise State
• Projection 4: Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Miami, BYU, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, LSU, Navy

The Big Ten has a pretty clear upper crust in Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana. Analysts would be relatively surprised if any of those three teams missed the CFP, though Ohio State faces a brutal schedule compared to last year's cakewalk.

Who Are the Top Dark Horse Teams This Season?

Every year, a few teams come out of nowhere to crash the playoff party. Here are the squads analysts are keeping an eye on:

Penn State Under New Leadership

Despite plenty of changes in Happy Valley following the firing of head coach James Franklin last fall, the Nittany Lions are well-positioned to contend for a spot in the CFP, thanks to a favorable schedule. Penn State avoids Oregon, Indiana, Ohio State and Iowa this fall and won't face a power-conference opponent in the non-conference portion of its schedule, either. Not a bad way for new head coach Matt Campbell to start his tenure.

Campbell brought essentially the best of Iowa State with him, and the schedule is incredibly forgiving. His crew gets USC and Michigan in back-to-back weeks in October, but they should be favored in almost every other game the rest of the year.

Louisville's Offensive Firepower

All the Cardinals have done across three seasons under head coach Jeff Brohm, formerly of Purdue, is win 28 games and secure twice as many victories as defeats in conference play. This season, Louisville returns eight starters on offense from a group that averaged nearly 30 points per game. If Ohio State transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz proves himself a reliable starter, then the Cardinals can contend in a thin ACC.

Navy's Historic Run

This one might be more of a longshot due to the Group of Six possibly receiving just one bid in a 12-team field, but the Midshipmen are a legitimate threat. Navy has won 21 games over the last two years under head coach Brian Newberry, the best two-year run in program history, and returns 11 starters from a team that went 11-2 last season. Keep an eye on the Oct. 31 showdown between Navy and No. 4 Notre Dame.

North Dakota State's FBS Transition

North Dakota State sticks out in playoff projections, but it shouldn't surprise anyone who follows the program closely. NDSU has a clear path to the CFP in Year 1 with a lighter schedule and a program that has grown a habit of winning. It's not difficult to see NDSU running the table as a new member of the Mountain West, given its pedigree and how difficult winning at the Fargodome has become for opposing teams.

When asked if his team is capable of competing for the College Football Playoff, Bison coach Tim Polasek told FOX Sports:

I think I like our team. We're going to have some learning and growing to do about our opponents, but I really like our process, the year-round work that we do and how we practice. Those things position us to be very competitive in every game. And if you happen to knock them down one at a time, there's no reason NDSU can't be in the conversation for the College Football Playoff.

Oklahoma State's Portal Makeover

If you're looking for a team that could flip its fortunes with one coaching move and a devastating eye for portal talent, then Oklahoma State is your team. After a breakthrough year as head coach of North Texas, Eric Morris picked up his 12-win team and moved it to Stillwater. That means Oklahoma State, a 1-11 program in 2025, now possesses a 4,300-yard passer in Drew Mestemaker, a 1,400-yard rusher in Caleb Hawkins and a 1,200-yard receiver in Wyatt Young.

Morris got busy in the portal with the addition of former Tarleton State tailback Tre Page III, who rushed for 839 yards on just 112 carries, as well as former Akron wideout Israel Polk, who caught 33 passes for 525 yards with eight touchdowns last season. Oklahoma State is the most improved team in college football coming out of the offseason.

Virginia Tech's ACC Resurgence

James Franklin might be quoting LL Cool J's Mama Said Knock You Out when the 2026 season is done. For now, he's trying to turn the Hokies into a team that can rock the ACC with former Penn Stater Ethan Grunkemeyer at quarterback, former Virginia Tech head coach Brent Pry at defensive coordinator and picking off 11 former Penn State commits. The schedule is manageable with just one preseason top 25 program (at SMU) to face.

SMU's Experience at Quarterback

If the ACC gets two teams into the CFP, SMU looks like the second behind Miami. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is back for a third year as the starter. Last season, he threw for 3,641 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He already has experience leading his team to the conference championship game and a CFP berth.

Ole Miss Riding Momentum

After going through all the drama of Lane Kiffin's departure before last year's CFP, Ole Miss made a resilient run to the semifinal under new head coach Pete Golding. This year, quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is back and so is star running back Kewan Lacy. The Rebels' SEC schedule isn't for the faint of heart, but perhaps an early win over LSU on Sept. 19 will get everyone in Oxford believing again.

Virginia's Quiet Stability

Another potential ACC sleeper. The Cavaliers went 11-3 last year. They have stability in head coach Tony Elliott, who is about to embark on his fifth season at UVA, and most of all, the program landed former Penn State and Missouri transfer QB Beau Pribula this offseason. They also don't have to play Miami, Clemson or Louisville during the regular season, so they could make a run.

Cal and South Carolina: Way Off the Board

If going way off the board for a few teams that could come out of nowhere, Cal and South Carolina are worth watching. Cal has one of the best young quarterbacks in the country in Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and head coach Tosh Lupoi has done yeoman's work in the transfer portal. The Golden Bears' schedule is incredibly forgiving as Cal avoids Miami and gets Clemson at home in September.

As for South Carolina, quarterback LaNorris Sellers should look more like what was expected last year with offensive coordinator Kendal Briles now running the offense. Throw in a pair of absolute freaky athletes in edge rusher Dylan Stewart and receiver Nyck Harbor and the pieces are there. Head coach Shane Beamer enters Year 6 on a hot seat, and getting into the CFP mix would certainly help his case.

Who Will Win the 2026 National Championship?

Several programs have legitimate claims to the title. Here's a look at the top contenders:

Oregon's Redemption Arc

Is this the year something finally changes for head coach Dan Lanning on the biggest stage following back-to-back losses in the College Football Playoff? Smashed by Ohio State in 2024 and gutted by Indiana in 2025, the Ducks approach this season having brought back 13 starters and accumulating the nation's No. 3 high school recruiting class.

There's a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback in Dante Moore and what should be the most fearsome defensive line in the country with four potential draft picks. The biggest concern is how the Ducks will fare after losing both coordinators to head-coaching positions last winter.

Ohio State's Complete Roster

The Buckeyes look like the most complete team in the sport, and they'll have a chance to show that on October 17 when they face the Hoosiers in Bloomington. They've also demonstrated they can navigate the modern age of the sport and win the national title, having won it just two years ago. They've got a quarterback in Julian Sayin, who was a Heisman finalist last year, a wide receiver in Jeremiah Smith, who was a Heisman finalist last year, and a defense that can be as suffocating this year as last year.

For OSU, the problem to solve should not present itself until the postseason. The Buckeyes need a run game, which is what offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was brought in to make better. If the Buckeyes are formidable in their rushing attack against top 10 opponents, they could become the second program in history to finish their season 16-0.

Texas Ready to Break Through

The Longhorns are entering their sixth year under Steve Sarkisian. This time, they have all the bells and whistles: a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback in Arch Manning, playmakers around him, and some of the best defensive stars in the country, like Collin Simmons and Rasheem Biles. There's also a nice mix of continuity and freshness on the coaching staff with the addition of Will Muschamp back as defensive coordinator.

Texas got off to a rocky start last year before finishing strong with wins over rival Texas A&M and then Michigan in the bowl game. This year, it's about learning from mistakes, being physical each week through a nine-game SEC schedule, passing an early non-conference test against Ohio State and ultimately, winning the national championship.

If not now, when for Texas and Steve Sarkisian? Sark has the quarterback, the elite receiver and the defensive pieces. If Texas beats Ohio State in Week 2, it's not crazy to say the Longhorns run the table.

What Does This Mean for Iowa Football?

For Iowa Hawkeye fans, the 2026 season brings familiar questions. The team's path to the College Football Playoff runs through a competitive Big Ten West, and while the Hawkeyes aren't in most preseason playoff projections, the expanded 12-team field means more opportunities than ever for a strong season to translate into a postseason berth.

Iowa's identity remains rooted in physical defense, strong special teams and a commitment to the run game. If the offense can take a step forward under center, the Hawkeyes could surprise some people in a conference that looks wide open behind the top tier of Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana.

Frequently Asked Questions About the 2026 College Football Playoff

When and where is the 2026 national championship game?

The 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Monday, Jan. 25.

How many teams make the College Football Playoff in 2026?

The College Football Playoff remains a 12-team field in 2026. The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions are guaranteed spots, as is Notre Dame if it finishes in the top 12. The highest-ranked Group of Six team also earns an automatic berth.

Which teams are the favorites to win the national championship?

Ohio State, Oregon and Texas are the consensus top contenders entering the season. Ohio State has the most complete roster, Oregon has a Heisman-caliber quarterback in Dante Moore, and Texas has Arch Manning leading a loaded roster in Steve Sarkisian's sixth year.

Can a Group of Six team make the College Football Playoff?

Yes, the highest-ranked Group of Six team earns an automatic berth. North Dakota State, Boise State, Navy and UNLV are the most likely candidates this season.