College Football 2026: Iowa State Cyclones Face Tough Year Ahead as Big 12 Win Totals Shift

By John Damon for Just The News Iowa

As the 2026 college football season approaches, the Iowa State Cyclones are projected to take a significant step back, according to a new analysis from CBS Sports. The Cyclones, who finished 8-4 in 2025, are forecast to drop by at least two wins this season, with a FanDuel win total set at just 4.5. This projection highlights the volatile nature of college football in the era of the transfer portal and NIL, where roster turnover can dramatically alter a team's fortunes from year to year.

Why Iowa State Is Poised for a Drop in 2026

The Cyclones face an uphill battle in 2026, primarily due to a complete roster overhaul. Iowa State returns zero starters from last season, the only Power Four program in the nation with that distinction. New head coach Jimmy Rogers, who took over after Matt Campbell's departure, inherits a team with 75 new signees and a schedule that includes road games at Iowa, BYU, and Arizona, plus tough home matchups against Utah, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State.

Rogers has a winning track record, but the challenge in Ames is steep. CBS Sports notes that while Washington State managed six wins last year with just three returning starters and 28 transfers, the Big 12 presents a much tougher test. The Cyclones' lack of continuity on both sides of the ball makes a significant drop in the win column likely.

Oklahoma State Cowboys: A Big 12 Team Poised to Rise

In contrast, the Oklahoma State Cowboys are projected as one of the biggest risers in the Big 12. After a dismal 1-11 season in 2025, the Cowboys are set for a turnaround, with a FanDuel win total of 6.5. CBS Sports analyst predicts Oklahoma State will be a bowl team in 2026, citing the best collection of skill talent in the conference.

Key additions include quarterback Drew Mestemaker, a potential first-round NFL draft pick, and running back Caleb Hawkins, who led the Group of Five in rushing last year at North Texas. The Cowboys also boast a deep receiving corps and a veteran defense under new coordinator Skyler Cassity, who previously transformed defenses at Sam Houston and North Texas. While questions remain about the offensive line, the Cowboys' high-powered offense should produce in a Big 12 where defensive lines are not overwhelming.

Other Big 12 and National Implications

The analysis also highlights other teams across the Power Four conferences. In the ACC, Virginia Tech is expected to rise after a 3-9 season, thanks to new coach James Franklin and a favorable schedule. Georgia Tech, which went 9-4 in 2025, is projected to fall due to low returning production and a tough slate. In the SEC, Florida is poised for a rebound after a 4-8 season, while Vanderbilt, which went 10-3 in 2025, is expected to drop off in the post-Diego Pavia era. Notre Dame, an independent, is projected to make a playoff run with a win total of 11.5.

What This Means for Iowa Fans

For Iowa State fans, the 2026 season represents a rebuilding year under new leadership. The Cyclones' struggles could open the door for rivals like Iowa, which faces its own challenges after a 9-4 season but returns fewer starters. The Iowa Hawkeyes, not featured in this analysis, will look to capitalize on the Cyclones' downturn in the annual Cy-Hawk rivalry game.

As the college football landscape continues to shift with NIL and the transfer portal, Iowa State's situation underscores the importance of roster stability and coaching continuity. For now, Cyclone fans should brace for a challenging season, while Oklahoma State's resurgence could make for an exciting Big 12 race.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is Iowa State projected to win only 4.5 games in 2026?

Iowa State returns zero starters from its 2025 team, the only Power Four program with that distinction. Combined with a difficult schedule and a new head coach, CBS Sports projects a significant drop in wins.

Can Oklahoma State really bounce back from a 1-11 season?

Yes, CBS Sports analysts believe Oklahoma State has the best skill talent in the Big 12, including a potential first-round quarterback and a top running back from the transfer portal. The Cowboys are projected to be a bowl team.

How does the transfer portal affect these projections?

The transfer portal allows teams to quickly rebuild rosters, but it also creates volatility. Teams like Iowa State with zero returning starters face an uphill climb, while Oklahoma State has used the portal to add key playmakers.

Photo: CBS Sports