Democrats lock Iowa out of early 2028 primary lineup, favoring diverse states

Iowa Democrats are on the outside looking in as the national party prepares to finalize a 2028 presidential nominating calendar that keeps the Hawkeye State off the top tier for a second straight cycle. The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee is expected to vote Friday on a schedule that elevates South Carolina or Nevada as the first-in-the-nation contest, a dramatic break from a tradition that made Iowa's caucuses a political powerhouse for decades.

Why Iowa lost its first-in-the-nation status

The overhaul reflects Democrats' effort to give greater influence to states that better mirror the party's diverse coalition, particularly Black and Latino voters. Iowa and New Hampshire, two states with overwhelmingly white electorates, have been pushed aside after leading the calendar for nearly 50 years.

“I think that it is good that we don't take the order for granted, and just copy and paste it every cycle,” said New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a progressive considered a potential 2028 candidate.

South Carolina vs. Nevada: The battle for first

Both South Carolina and Nevada have aggressively campaigned for the coveted opening spot. President Joe Biden successfully pushed to move South Carolina to the front of the 2024 calendar after the state revived his struggling 2020 campaign. South Carolina has long been the first Southern contest and a key test of candidates' support among Black voters.

Nevada argues it better reflects the modern Democratic coalition by combining racial diversity, a strong union presence and battleground-state status. The state has one of the nation's largest Hispanic populations, a sizable Black electorate and is home to the influential Culinary Workers Union.

“If you want to have a robust indicator of what an American electorate will be like, that will put us in the strongest position to put forth a primary candidate, I think it's pretty clear that Nevada should be first,” Nevada Rep. Susie Lee said this week.

Black leaders push back on South Carolina's potential demotion

Black leaders have pushed back, arguing that moving South Carolina aside after just one cycle would diminish the power of Black voters. Roughly one-quarter of South Carolina's population is Black, according to the U.S. Census.

“If South Carolina gets quietly bumped after one cycle of convenient praise, that sends a message louder than any speech at a Democratic dinner: the gratitude was performance, not policy,” Rev. Al Sharpton said in a statement.

Midwest slot: Iowa, Illinois, Michigan compete

The DNC has opted to select four early states, one from each region of the country, while considering whether to add a fifth. For the Midwest slot, Illinois, Iowa and Michigan submitted bids. Michigan is viewed as a leading contender for the regional position but did not seek the first overall spot.

Iowa's bid for the Midwest slot faces long odds. The state's Democratic Party has struggled to rebuild after the disastrous 2020 caucus reporting fiasco, and many national Democrats view the state as unrepresentative of the party's base.

Republicans stick with Iowa, New Hampshire

Republicans still need to finalize their calendar, but they are expected to stick with their traditional early-state lineup led by Iowa and New Hampshire. That means Iowa will remain a key battleground for Republican presidential hopefuls even as Democrats abandon the state.

The decision is one of the first major milestones in what is expected to be a tumultuous two-year sprint to the Democratic nomination. There has not been a truly open Democratic presidential primary without an incumbent president or a dominant frontrunner in almost two decades.

What this means for Iowa voters

For Iowa voters, the loss of first-in-the-nation status means less national attention, fewer candidate visits and diminished influence in picking the Democratic nominee. The state's Republican-leaning electorate may see this as further evidence that the national Democratic Party has abandoned heartland values in favor of coastal and urban interests.

Potential White House hopefuls have already begun laying groundwork in South Carolina and Michigan. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg moved to Michigan several years ago and has steadily built political relationships there, making an early Michigan primary a potentially significant boost to his prospects.

The full DNC is scheduled to meet in August to approve the calendar.