Democrats' new 2028 primary calendar leaves Iowa out in the cold

Iowa's decades-long reign as the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus state is officially over. The Democratic National Committee voted Saturday to finalize a 2028 primary calendar that kicks off in South Carolina, cementing the Hawkeye State's exit from the early voting lineup and sparking fierce pushback from Iowa Democrats who warn the move hands Republicans a powerful advantage.

The new schedule packs six primaries into six weeks, starting with South Carolina on Jan. 22, followed by Nevada on Feb. 1, New Hampshire on Feb. 8, New Mexico on Feb. 15, Michigan on Feb. 22, and Virginia on Feb. 29. Iowa is nowhere on the list.

Why did Democrats drop Iowa from the early calendar?

The decision follows years of tension between national Democrats and Iowa after the state's botched 2020 caucuses, when a malfunctioning app delayed results for days. National party leaders moved to jettison Iowa from the top of the lineup, arguing the state's overwhelmingly white electorate does not reflect the party's diverse coalition.

DNC Chair Ken Martin praised the new lineup as a group of states that represent the party's values.

Our 2028 nominee, whoever they are, will have to earn the support across the full breadth of America: every region, every demographic, every generation, every economic station in life, Martin told DNC members at their summer meeting in Austin. The calendar will battle-test our nominee, it will require them to earn support from every corner of this coalition and it will put them in the strongest possible position not just to win a primary, but to win back the White House.

Iowa Democrats fight back

Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart argued Saturday that the 2028 plan excludes huge swaths of the country and the voters Democrats need to win. She also warned that handing Republicans, who are likely to keep Iowa early in their own lineup, a giant media bullhorn would only amplify conservative voices in the heartland.

Iowa Democrats have previously threatened to defy the DNC's calendar. But the national party is now ratcheting up sanctions both on state parties and on candidates who try to go rogue, making it harder for Iowa to hold any unsanctioned early contest.

New Hampshire could also defy the DNC

New Hampshire could throw another wrench into Democrats' plans. The Granite State has a state law requiring it to hold its primary a week before any similar contest. With Republicans holding a trifecta in the state government, Democrats have no realistic path to change that law.

The DNC is asking New Hampshire Democrats to hold a party-run process on their designated date instead. New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley called Saturday's vote disappointing but stopped short of saying how the state party will proceed.

We will continue making the case to ensure that Granite Staters have a meaningful voice in choosing the next Democratic nominee for president, Buckley said in a statement.

What does the new calendar mean for the 2028 race?

The new lineup is designed to give more voice to traditionally Democratic voting blocs that have shifted right in recent years. Party insiders fiercely debated between South Carolina and Nevada for the top slot, searching for ways to shore up Black Democratic power in the South after the Supreme Court moved to gut the Voting Rights Act, while also amplifying Latino and working-class voters in a key battleground state.

The calendar they settled on attempts to do both by putting those states at the front of the line and adding New Mexico and Virginia to the early window.

The changes could upend how would-be candidates approach coalition-building after years of starting off in heavily white states. Potential contenders have been making the rounds to South Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire over the past year, but they will now have to build networks in new places.

Nevada and Michigan are swing states whose November elections this year, particularly Michigan's high-stakes Senate race, could tip the scales in the party's ideological war and shape how candidates approach those states in the presidential race.

What happens next?

The calendar process is not entirely over. Democrats in each state will still have to formalize their primary dates through their secretaries of state or legislatures. Republicans have not yet set their calendar for 2028.

For Iowa, the fight is likely not finished. State Democrats have shown a willingness to challenge national party leadership, and the coming months will reveal whether they attempt any end-run around the DNC's new rules. One thing is certain: the Iowa caucuses, once the crown jewel of the presidential nominating process, will no longer hold the same national significance for Democrats.