ESPN Model Puts Iowa on Buckeyes' Road Map, Names College Football's Best and Worst for 2026

As the 2026 college football season kicks off, ESPN's predictive power index has released its initial rankings for all 138 FBS teams. The model, which projects scoring margins for every game, identifies Ohio State as the team to beat, UL Monroe as the squad facing the steepest climb, and Navy as the most average program in the country. For Iowa fans, the rankings carry extra weight: the Hawkeyes are one of four road opponents expected to test the Buckeyes in a brutal stretch of their schedule.

Ohio State tops the preseason projections

The ESPN model agrees with the Coaches Poll and the AP rankings, placing Ohio State at No. 1. The Buckeyes are projected to beat their opponents by an average of four touchdowns and hold a 76 percent likelihood of making the College Football Playoff.

Quarterback Julian Sayin, a Heisman Trophy finalist last year, returns for his second season as the starter. He will again target Jeremiah Smith, widely considered the top wide receiver in the nation. Those two give Ohio State an offense that few defenses can contain.

Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia proved himself in his first year on the job, but the Buckeyes must replace several key players who moved on to the NFL. The schedule also stiffens considerably. Ohio State faces six projected ranked teams, and four of those games are on the road: Texas, Iowa, Indiana, and USC.

Iowa's home clash with Ohio State draws attention

The trip to Iowa City stands out as one of the toughest tests on Ohio State's slate. Kinnick Stadium has long been one of the most difficult environments for visiting teams, and the Hawkeyes' defense has a history of disrupting even the most talented offenses.

For Iowa, the game represents a chance to make a national statement. A home win over the projected No. 1 team would reshape the playoff picture and give the Hawkeyes a marquee victory that could carry them deep into November.

UL Monroe faces the toughest road in the FBS

At the bottom of the rankings sits UL Monroe, debuting at No. 138. The Warhawks have posted just three winning seasons in the last 39 years at the FBS level. Head coach Bryant Vincent has won eight total games in his tenure, including a 3-9 mark last season.

The numbers from 2025 were stark. UL Monroe's defense was outscored by 103 points in the second half alone, and the offense managed just 16 points per game. The Warhawks started 3-1 but did not win again after September, a slide that included a 73-0 loss to Alabama that heavily skewed the model's projections.

Quarterback Aidan Armenta returns after throwing for 1,629 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he has a promising group of receivers to work with. But the offensive line and running game need significant improvement for the Warhawks to move out of the cellar.

Navy sits right in the middle of the pack

Ranked at No. 69, Navy represents the exact midpoint of the FBS. The Midshipmen are coming off the best two-year stretch in school history, winning 21 games including an 11-2 campaign last season.

Navy led the nation in rushing again in 2025, piling up 286 yards per game and scoring 41 rushing touchdowns at nearly 5.8 yards per carry. The Midshipmen topped 300 rushing yards in five games and went over 200 against every opponent except their fellow service academies.

The offense will need to replace roughly 3,000 yards of total production from departed skill players. Still, the team returns experienced talent on both lines and a veteran defense, and the schedule offers a realistic path toward playoff contention.

What the model means for the season ahead

ESPN's power index ranks teams by projected scoring margins, which makes it a useful tool for spotting overachievers and underachievers before the games begin. Early-season blowouts can skew the numbers, as UL Monroe's loss to Alabama demonstrated, but the model also rewards consistency and schedule strength.

For Iowa, the message is clear: the showdown with Ohio State in Iowa City is one of the defining games of the 2026 season. A strong showing could vault the Hawkeyes up the rankings and into the national conversation.

The season opens this week, and the projections will shift with every snap. But for now, the model has spoken, and it sees Ohio State as the class of the field, Navy as the measuring stick, and UL Monroe as the team with the most ground to make up.