Iowa basketball fans get their first look at the 2026-27 Hawkeyes tonight, but ESPN is already lowering expectations, placing Ben McCollum's squad in its lowest preseason tier on Monday, Oct. 27.
The network's annual ranking of 75 teams sorted Iowa into Tier IX, a group ESPN analysts labeled 'check back next year', according to Yahoo Sports. The Hawkeyes open exhibition play Monday night against Illinois Springfield at Xtream Arena in Coralville, with the regular season starting Tuesday, Nov. 3 against Lipscomb at 7 p.m. CT.
Why ESPN is skeptical of the Hawkeyes
The doubt centers on one name: Bennett Stirtz. The star guard, who followed McCollum from Drake to Iowa City, carried the Hawkeyes to the Elite Eight last season and ranked among ESPN's most indispensable players in the NCAA tournament field.
According to KenPom, Stirtz played 94.1% of available minutes last season. ESPN analysts Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf wrote that replacing that level of production is nearly impossible.
According to KenPom, Bennett Stirtz played 94.1% of available minutes last season for Iowa, carrying the Hawkeyes to the Elite Eight as one of the most important players for any team in the NCAA tournament field. It's impossible to replace that level of production, which is why Ben McCollum's group is here. - Jeff Borzello, Myron Medcalf, ESPN
The numbers behind the doubt
Stirtz led Iowa in scoring at 19.8 points per game on 47.7% shooting. The problem for McCollum runs deeper than one departure.
Iowa's second- and third-leading scorers are also gone. Forward Tavion Banks averaged 10.2 points per game, and Alvaro Folgueiras added 8.4. Together, the three departures accounted for nearly 39 points per game of last season's offense.
Who fills the gaps this season
McCollum turned to the transfer portal for reinforcements. Illinois State guard Ty'Reek Coleman and Saint Mary's center Andrew McKeever arrive as the headline additions, and both are expected to step into significant roles immediately.
They join a returning core that includes Kael Combs, Isaia Howard, Tate Sage, Cooper Koch, and Cam Manyawu. Whether that group can replicate the chemistry that carried Iowa on a surprise tournament run is the question hanging over the entire season.
Where Iowa stands nationally
Iowa shares Tier IX with Saint Mary's, UCF, Santa Clara, South Florida, and Utah State. Per Hawkeyes Wire coverage, ESPN's preseason tiers put Florida, Duke, and Illinois in the national title contender category, with Arizona, Texas, UConn, Michigan State, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Virginia tabbed as Final Four hopefuls.
Notably, in-state rival Iowa State landed in a higher tier, with ESPN citing guard Tamin Lipsey as a player who could lift the Cyclones to a second-weekend NCAA tournament team.
McCollum's track record says never count him out
Here is what the national analysts may be underestimating. McCollum has spent his career proving doubters wrong, first at Northwest Missouri State, then at Drake, and again last year in Iowa City.
Iowa's Elite Eight run came in McCollum's first season after a major roster overhaul, a rebuild that looked questionable on paper before it produced one of the best stories in college basketball. Hawkeye fans have seen this script before, and they have reason to believe the coaching staff can develop transfers into contenders faster than the national media expects.
The exhibition against Illinois Springfield offers the first evidence. The real verdict comes starting Nov. 3, when Lipscomb visits Iowa City for the regular season opener.
Frequently asked questions
Where did ESPN rank Iowa basketball in its preseason tiers?
ESPN placed Iowa in Tier IX, the 'check back next year' category, its lowest preseason grouping for the 2026-27 season.
Who did Iowa lose from last season's Elite Eight team?
The Hawkeyes lost their top three scorers: Bennett Stirtz (19.8 points per game), Tavion Banks (10.2), and Alvaro Folgueiras (8.4).
Who did Iowa add through the transfer portal?
Iowa added former Illinois State guard Ty'Reek Coleman and former Saint Mary's center Andrew McKeever.
When does Iowa basketball open the regular season?
Iowa hosts Lipscomb on Tuesday, Nov. 3 at 7 p.m. CT in Iowa City.