Rising fuel prices have become the dominant issue of the 2026 midterms, and pollster Robert Cahaly says pump prices are “the only real factor that's having an impact” on voters heading into November, with Iowa's Senate seat listed among the closest races in the country.
According to AAA data cited by The Epoch Times, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline hit $4.33 on Oct. 14, up from $3.07 one year earlier. Diesel averaged $6.29 per gallon, compared with $3.65 a year ago. The spike follows hostilities involving Iran, disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, and the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Why Gas Prices Matter More Than Any Other Issue
Cahaly, founder of the Trafalgar Group, the polling firm that correctly forecast Donald Trump's 2016 victory when most pollsters picked Hillary Clinton, told The Epoch Times in September that if the election were held then, Republicans would face what he called an electoral “bloodbath.”
“Affordability is hitting people in their pocketbooks and they're like, ‘Man, I might agree with the Republican versus the Democrat, but I don't like what's going on at the gas pump and I want to punish somebody,'” Cahaly said.
The Trafalgar Group's September polling shows Democrats leading in Senate races in North Carolina, Texas, and Ohio, where Republicans hold the seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take the chamber. The firm also rates Republican seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, and South Carolina as very close. A single one of those flipping blue would likely hand Democrats Senate control.
A KFF/AP survey of more than 2,000 rural voters found that gasoline and transportation costs ranked as the single biggest pocketbook concern, ahead of healthcare, food, rent, and utilities. Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed said they were very or somewhat concerned about paying for the increases.
Cahaly explained why fuel stands apart from other household costs.
“Not everybody in a household goes to the grocery store. Not everybody in the household buys clothes. But most people in the household buy gas. … I bet you could probably tell me right now what the cheapest you ever paid for gas is and roughly what year it was. It's just a number we know,” he said.
What the Price Spike Means for Iowa Farmers
For a state where agriculture drives the economy, the diesel numbers hit especially hard. The Epoch Times interviewed Jason Vander Kooy, a dairy farmer in Washington state's Skagit Valley who milks 1,400 cows, and his situation mirrors what Iowa producers face this harvest season.
Vander Kooy said his farm pays close to $6 a gallon for diesel even at a bulk rate, against a normal price of about $3. His operation burns roughly 1,000 gallons a day during harvest, pushing daily fuel costs from about $3,000 to about $6,000.
“That's the highest price for diesel we've ever paid,” he said.
Fuel surcharges are compounding the pain on everything trucked in and out of the farm, he added. MSN