The Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrat Josh Turek for U.S. Senate on Friday, October 30, with its president saying tariff policy and rising fuel costs have put Iowa farm families under real strain just days before the election.
IFU President Aaron Lehman, an organic row crop farmer from Polk County, made the announcement from his farm ahead of President Donald Trump's planned Sunday rally in Dubuque for Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson. It is the first federal candidate the group has endorsed in years, according to KCRG.
Rally on, then off, then on again
The endorsement came amid whiplash over the president's travel plans. Trump canceled the Dubuque rally Thursday night, and news outlets confirmed Friday the event was back on for Sunday, according to Iowa Capital Dispatch.
The White House, responding to an inquiry from Newsweek, said on background that the rallies in Iowa and Kansas were rearranged for scheduling purposes to accommodate dozens of additional tele-rallies. A source familiar with the plans said Trump will hold back-to-back rallies in both states Sunday.
Lehman said the back and forth sent a familiar message to farmers.
Who knows, five minutes from now maybe we'll hear new news. This 'is it on, is it off' thing going on with the rally reminds farmers of the Trump tariff policy, where it's been chaotic.
He added that chaotic policy is not helpful for farmers trying to plan for planting, purchasing and marketing decisions that play out over years, not news cycles.
Diesel and fertilizer costs hit Iowa operations
The practical damage Lehman pointed to is concrete. The average price of a gallon of diesel in Iowa is now $6.09, according to AAA, up from $3.52 one year ago.
Lehman said that difference can add as much as $300 in extra fuel costs per day to run a single combine during harvest. Fertilizer and pesticide prices have also surged, with the spike tied in part to U.S. involvement in the Iran war and the disruption that followed the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world's oil moves.
It just caused such a huge spike in costs for fertilizer and diesel. I hear those two things the most from farmers about the damage being done on their farm.
Refined fuels have risen faster than crude oil since the strait was closed, compounding the squeeze on operating margins during harvest season.
Trade relationships still a sore spot
Lehman also criticized the tariff approach toward U.S. trading partners, saying it has thrown markets into disorder and damaged long-term relationships between Iowa farmers and their customers. A trade war with China caused a period in 2025 when the country purchased no U.S. soybeans at all, though Trump later negotiated a trade deal that restored Chinese soybean purchases, according to KCRG.
Lehman said IFU members have traveled to Washington, D.C., several times in recent years to raise trade and cost concerns. He described meetings with Hinson's staff as productive, but said attempts to meet with the congresswoman herself were unsuccessful. Newsweek reached out to the Hinson campaign for comment Friday.
The policy decisions coming out of Washington have been extremely unpopular. What is even more surprising from farmers, I'm hearing, is that they expected Iowa politicians to stand up to it and talk about what this means for Iowa farms and Iowa small towns.
Competitive endorsements in a tight race
The endorsement sets up a split in agricultural circles. Hinson, who holds Trump's endorsement, also has the backing of the Iowa Farm Bureau, the state's largest farm organization. Turek now carries the IFU's flag.
Farmers are a small share of Iowa's electorate but a politically attentive one, and both campaigns have made agricultural voices central to their messaging in the race for the open seat left by retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst.
What the latest polls show
Public surveys point to a race that could go either way on Tuesday. An Echelon Insights poll of 403 likely voters, conducted October 16 to 23, put Turek ahead 45 percent to 43 percent, with Libertarian Thomas Laehn at 7 percent.
An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters from October 21 to 22 found Hinson up 47 percent to 45 percent. A YouGov poll of 2,245 likely voters, taken October 6 to 12, gave Turek a 47 to 46 edge, and a Marist poll of 1,100 likely voters from October 8 to 11 had Turek ahead 48 to 45.
Emerson College's survey of 650 likely voters, October 5 to 6, showed Hinson leading 47 to 45. A CNN/SSRS poll of 801 likely voters from September 29 to October 5 also had Hinson up by two, 45 to 43, while a Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters from October 1 to 4 gave Turek a four-point lead at 48 percent to 44 percent.
With margins that narrow and third-party support in the mid-single digits, turnout in rural counties and farm communities could decide who succeeds Ernst.
Frequently asked questions
Who did the Iowa Farmers Union endorse in the Senate race?
The Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrat Josh Turek on Friday, October 30. It is the group's first federal endorsement in years.
Is Trump's Dubuque rally still happening?
Yes. After a Thursday cancellation, the White House confirmed Friday that the president will rally in Dubuque, Iowa, and in Kansas on Sunday.
How much has diesel risen in Iowa?
AAA data shows the average gallon of diesel in Iowa at $6.09, up from $3.52 a year ago. Lehman estimated the increase can add up to $300 per day in fuel costs for one combine during harvest.