Iowa football heads to Evanston this Saturday for a road test against Northwestern, and the matchup hinges on whether the Hawkeyes can build on their best offensive showing of the season against Wisconsin on Halloween.
According to Yahoo Sports, which broke down three reasons Iowa will beat the Wildcats and three reasons it won't, the game could swing on quarterback Hank Brown, ball security from running back Xavier Williams, and whether Phil Parker's defense can solve one of the strangest offenses in college football.
Why Iowa Will Beat Northwestern
Hank Brown is finding his rhythm
Brown has spent the season stuck in a quarterback carousel with Jeremy Hecklinski, but his performance against Wisconsin last Saturday was his best of the year. He completed 83% of his passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, a 20-for-24 outing that earned him Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week honors.
Brown became the first Iowa quarterback to win the award since Nate Stanley in 2018. As RoundtableSports noted, Iowa needs to carry over everything that worked against the Badgers, and it starts with the quarterback position.
Keeping the connection alive with wide receiver Tony Diaz matters too. The pair connected four times for 75 yards against Wisconsin, including a 45-yard completion in the second quarter that set up Diaz's second receiving touchdown of the season. Tight ends DJ Vonnahme and Reece Vander Zee should also see opportunities against a Wildcats defense allowing 219 passing yards per game in Big Ten play.
Xavier Williams has to hang on to the football
Williams fumbled twice against Wisconsin, losing one, and Iowa cannot afford that from its lead back in a pivotal road game. If he protects the ball, the Hawkeyes' ground game gives the offense balance it has lacked for stretches of the season.
Sports Illustrated reported that Northwestern is giving up 4.52 yards per carry and nearly 147 rushing yards per game, so there is room for Williams and the Iowa run game to control the clock and keep the Wildcats honest.
Winning on third down
Iowa's path on defense is straightforward: keep Northwestern in third and long. That is easier said than done against this Wildcats offense, but long-yardage situations are where Parker's defense has historically feasted, and they would go a long way toward an Iowa win on the road.
Why Iowa Could Lose
Aidan Chiles is a problem
Wildcats quarterback Aidan Chiles torched Iowa once before. Back in 2024, while playing for a mediocre Michigan State team, Chiles threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns to engineer an upset win over the Hawkeyes.
He is a much better player now. Chiles has thrown just one interception this season and remains dangerous with his legs, the same skill set that burned Iowa two years ago. He was listed as questionable on Wednesday night, but if he plays, Parker's defense has to learn from the mistakes of 2024.
Northwestern's unique formations
Few teams in college football run anything like Northwestern's offense. The Wildcats average 33 points per game, and they do it with looks straight out of a different era, including a regular Wing-T formation and plays where a wide receiver lines up 10 to 13 yards behind the line of scrimmage, mimicking arena football.
Solving those looks gets harder if Iowa is shorthanded. Safety Zach Lutmer and cornerback Jaylen Watson were both listed as questionable as of Wednesday, which could leave the secondary vulnerable against the Wildcats' creative attack.
The offense's roller coaster continues
Iowa's last four conference games tell the story of an offense that cannot stay consistent: bad against Ohio State, great at Washington, horrible at Minnesota, and really good against Wisconsin.
The Hawkeyes are at the top of the hill right now after the Wisconsin win, but the Minnesota game showed how quickly the coaster can drop. If that version of the offense shows up in Evanston, Saturday evening could get rough for Iowa.
What to Watch Saturday in Evanston
The quarterback battle is the headline. Brown is coming off a career day and his first conference honor, while Chiles, if healthy, is the most dangerous dual-threat passer Iowa has faced since he upset the Hawkeyes two years ago.
Ball security is the second storyline. Williams' two fumbles against Wisconsin did not cost Iowa that game, but a road environment against an improved Northwestern team leaves little margin for error.
The third storyline is preparation. Parker has had two years to think about what Chiles did to his defense in 2024, and Iowa's staff has had a full week to prepare for formations most teams never see. How well the Hawkeyes adapt on the fly, especially if Lutmer or Watson cannot play, will likely decide which direction this game goes.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does Iowa football play Northwestern?
Iowa plays at Northwestern in Evanston this Saturday, November 7, 2026. Kickoff details were not included in the preview coverage.
Who is Iowa's starting quarterback against Northwestern?
Hank Brown is expected to start after completing 83% of his passes for two touchdowns against Wisconsin and being named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, the first Iowa quarterback to win the award since Nate Stanley in 2018.
Is Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles injured?
Chiles was listed as questionable as of Wednesday night, according to Yahoo Sports. If he plays, Iowa's defense will face a quarterback who threw for 256 yards and two touchdowns against the Hawkeyes in 2024.
What are Northwestern's offensive strengths?
The Wildcats average 33 points per game and use unusual formations, including the Wing-T and receivers lined up well behind the line of scrimmage. Their defense allows 4.52 yards per carry and about 147 rushing yards per game, per Sports Illustrated.