Iowa hosts No. 25 Wisconsin at Kinnick Stadium on Saturday morning, and the Hawkeyes' season may hinge on the outcome. Kickoff is set for 11 a.m. on FOX.
At 5-2 overall and 2-2 in Big Ten play, Iowa saw its College Football Playoff hopes take a major hit with last weekend's loss at Minnesota. According to Yahoo Sports, any late-season push back into contention has to start with a win over the resurgent Badgers (5-1, 3-1), and the matchup breaks down into three reasons Iowa wins and three reasons it doesn't.
Why Iowa will beat Wisconsin
The run game just needs to be above average
Nobody expects Iowa to replicate the 268-yard rushing day it hung on Washington. Wisconsin fields a far better defense and will load the box to force quarterback Hank Brown to throw. But the Hawkeyes don't need to dominate on the ground to win. Even a solid afternoon could back the Badgers off and open things up in the passing game. The catch: Iowa will have to do it without lead back Kamari Moulton.
Get the ball to Tony Diaz
Brown has to play better after a rough day in Minneapolis, and the fastest way to do that is feeding star wideout Tony Diaz. Diaz saw around 10 targets per game earlier this season, but that volume has dried up, bottoming out at four targets against Minnesota. When he does touch the ball, he produces; his lone catch last week went for 57 yards. A screen, a quick slant, anything that gets him the ball in space gives Iowa a chance at an explosive play.
Win the turnover battle
Iowa lost the turnover battle 4-1 against Minnesota, and that was the game. The coaching staff knows a repeat performance against Wisconsin ends the same way, especially in what projects as a close, low-scoring game. Protect the ball, and the Hawkeyes have every chance.
Why Iowa could lose
Wisconsin's ground game gets rolling
Quarterback Colton Joseph leads the Badgers in rushing with 295 yards, and Iowa State transfer Abu Sama III averages 5.8 yards per carry on 51 attempts. If Wisconsin runs the ball effectively at Kinnick, the Badgers become very tough to beat. Iowa's best path is forcing them to win through the air.
The passing game stays stuck
Wisconsin will stack the box, so Brown has to win his one-on-one chances in man coverage. That's easier said than done after last week's struggles. If Iowa can't throw it at all, it's hard to see a path to victory.
Penalties keep piling up
The Hawkeyes have already drawn 43 penalties this year, more than all of last season (39). Some flags, like pass interference and holding, are simply part of football. But the procedural mistakes, false starts, offsides and illegal formations, have to stop. A young roster explains some of it, but seven games in, this looks like more than growing pains.
What other analysts are saying
Sports Illustrated points to Phil Parker's defense as a reason for optimism, noting Iowa allows just 31% of third-down conversions and held Minnesota to 2-for-14 on third down. Wisconsin ranks 84th nationally in that category, converting defense at over 39%.
The numbers cut both ways, though. RoundtableSports notes Wisconsin has held opponents to just 87 rushing yards per game, a serious problem for an Iowa team with quarterback questions that might prefer to win on the ground. One bright spot: cornerback Deshaun Lee's three interceptions rank third in the Big Ten.
Bettors may find hope in history. The Sports Gambling Podcast highlights Iowa's 50-35 record against the spread after a loss since 2003 under Kirk Ferentz, and one analyst called Wisconsin's offense one-dimensional, citing just 200 yards against UCLA and a best day of 284 against Notre Dame.
FAQ
What time does Iowa football play Wisconsin?
Kickoff is 11 a.m. Saturday at Kinnick Stadium, with the game televised on FOX.
What is Iowa's record going into the Wisconsin game?
The Hawkeyes are 5-2 overall and 2-2 in Big Ten play. Wisconsin is 5-1 and 3-1.
Who is Iowa's leading concern on the Wisconsin offense?
Badgers quarterback Colton Joseph leads the team in rushing with 295 yards, and running back Abu Sama III averages 5.8 yards per carry.