Iowa GOP Watches California Race: Can Hilton Close the Gap Against Becerra?

A new poll shows Democrat Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton by a wide margin in California's gubernatorial race. But Hilton's campaign insists the contest is far from over, pointing to deep voter frustration in the Golden State. For Iowa Republicans watching national trends, the race offers a case study in how conservative candidates can compete in deep-blue territory.

Becerra Holds Commanding Lead in Latest Poll

A Public Policy Institute of California poll released Wednesday shows Becerra with 61 percent support among likely voters, compared to Hilton's 36 percent. The survey of 1,003 likely voters was conducted June 29 to July 6 and has a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.

Becerra, the former Health and Human Services Secretary under President Joe Biden, secured about 28 percent of the vote in California's top-two primary in June. Hilton, a former Fox News commentator and adviser to then-British Prime Minister David Cameron, finished second with 24.6 percent.

California has not elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger left office in 2011. The state remains a Democratic stronghold, with Kamala Harris carrying it by 20 points over President Donald Trump in 2024.

Hilton Campaign Pushes Back, Points to Voter Anger

On the same day the PPIC poll was released, Hilton's campaign released its own internal survey showing a much closer race. The campaign poll found 52 percent of likely voters believe California is on the wrong track, and 66 percent say the state needs a complete overhaul.

“This new poll confirms the race for governor is wide open,” Hilton said in a press release. “Despite the usual headline numbers, Xavier Becerra's support is soft. He can count on only 41% of the vote, with 26% of voters up for grabs and looking for change, especially solutions to the affordability crisis that Becerra's machine created.”

Campaign-sponsored polls are typically designed by the candidate's own team and are not independent surveys. But Hilton's argument taps into real voter frustration over housing costs, homelessness, and the cost of living that have become central issues in the race.

What This Race Means for Iowa and the GOP

For Iowa Republicans, the California governor's race is more than a distant spectacle. It is a test of whether conservative messages on affordability, government accountability, and individual liberty can break through in a state dominated by progressive policies.

“Even though Californians may differ over whether or not they think the state is moving in the right direction, there is a now a strong and solid majority of the electorate who favors Democratic candidate over Republican candidates,” said Thaddeus Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego.

But Hilton's campaign argues that the race is still competitive, especially if he can tap into the 26 percent of voters they say are up for grabs. The internal poll also found that 66 percent of voters want a complete overhaul of state government, a message that resonates with conservative voters in Iowa and across the country.

Becerra Consolidates Democratic Base, Hilton Struggles with Independents

Christian Robert Grose, director of the University of Southern California's Democracy and Fair Elections Lab, noted that Becerra has consolidated more than 90 percent of Democratic voters. “This means he has consolidated the Democratic base and can now spend the next few months going after independent and Republican voters,” Grose told Newsweek.

Hilton's weakness with independents could also hurt down-ballot races, including several competitive U.S. House districts in California. That is a concern for national Republicans who hope to hold or flip seats in the state.

Prediction Markets Give Becerra Overwhelming Edge

Prediction markets are not giving Hilton much of a chance. Kalshi puts Becerra's chances of winning at 93.5 percent, while Polymarket gives him 94 percent. Hilton's odds sit at 6.5 percent on both platforms.

But Hilton told Newsweek in April that “California is desperate for change. Everything's heading in the wrong direction. It's really a disaster, and we're desperate for a change.”

For Iowa voters watching the race, the question is whether that desperation can translate into a Republican victory in November, or whether California's Democratic machine will hold firm once again.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can Steve Hilton really win the California governor's race?

Most polls and prediction markets give Hilton a very low chance of winning, with Becerra leading by 25 points in the latest independent survey. However, Hilton's campaign points to internal polling showing a much closer race and deep voter frustration with the state's direction.

Why does the California governor's race matter to Iowans?

The race is a test of whether conservative messages on affordability, government accountability, and individual liberty can break through in a deep-blue state. It also affects national Republican strategy for U.S. House races and provides lessons for Iowa GOP candidates.

What are the key issues in the California governor's race?

The top issues are housing costs, homelessness, affordability, and the overall direction of the state. Hilton is running on a platform of change and reform, while Becerra emphasizes his experience and competence.

How does California's top-two primary system work?

All candidates appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, even if they are from the same party. In June, Becerra and Hilton finished first and second.