Iowa Hawkeyes crack College Football Playoff bracket projection after stunning Michigan win

The Iowa Hawkeyes are back in the College Football Playoff conversation after a dramatic last-second victory over Michigan, landing at No. 10 in the latest bracket projection from CBS Sports. With a massive showdown against Ohio State looming this weekend, the Hawkeyes control their own destiny in the race for a playoff berth.

Iowa's thrilling win over the Wolverines propelled the undefeated Hawkeyes into the projected 12-team field, giving the state's football faithful plenty to be excited about as October approaches. But the path gets tougher immediately, with a trip to Columbus to face the No. 2 Buckeyes on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.

What does Iowa need to do to make the playoff?

The formula is simple for the Hawkeyes: beat Ohio State and they'll have a terrific chance of securing a playoff spot. A loss doesn't eliminate Iowa, but it makes the margin for error much thinner.

If Iowa falls to the Buckeyes, the Hawkeyes still have a realistic path to an 11-1 record with a very manageable schedule the rest of the way. The question becomes whether the selection committee would leave out an 11-1 Big Ten team, even without many marquee wins on the resume.

SEC teams dominate the projected field

The bracket projection features a heavy SEC presence, with Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Florida and Ole Miss all projected to make the field. The conference could send five or more teams to the playoff for the second straight season, despite moving to a nine-game conference slate.

Texas holds the No. 1 seed thanks to marquee wins over Ohio State and Tennessee. Georgia checks in at No. 4 as the most impressive SEC team so far, while Alabama sits at No. 7 and Florida surged to No. 8 after a convincing win over Ole Miss.

Iowa's projected playoff path

In the current projection, Iowa would travel to Alabama for a first-round matchup on Dec. 18-19. The winner would face No. 2 Ohio State in the quarterfinals.

The Hawkeyes' defense has been the story all season, and a road playoff game against the Crimson Tide would be a heavyweight battle. Iowa fans remember the Hawkeyes' 2024 Citrus Bowl loss to Tennessee, but this team has shown a different level of resilience under pressure.

What's at stake this weekend against Ohio State

Saturday's game in Columbus is the biggest test of the season for Iowa. The Buckeyes are loaded with talent and still smarting from their loss to Texas earlier this year. Ohio State has Iowa, Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan remaining on its schedule, so the Buckeyes can afford one more loss but not two.

For Iowa, a win would be a program-defining moment and would almost certainly lock up a playoff spot. Even in defeat, the Hawkeyes would remain in the mix with a favorable remaining schedule that includes games against Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nebraska.

Full projected College Football Playoff bracket

Here's the complete 12-team projection from CBS Sports:

Seeds: 1. Texas, 2. Ohio State, 3. Miami, 4. Georgia, 5. Notre Dame, 6. Indiana, 7. Alabama, 8. Florida, 9. Texas Tech, 10. Iowa, 11. Ole Miss, 12. Boise State

First round (Dec. 18-19): No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Notre Dame; No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Indiana; No. 10 Iowa at No. 7 Alabama; No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Florida

Quarterfinals (Dec. 30-Jan. 1): No. 1 Texas vs. Florida/Texas Tech winner; No. 2 Ohio State vs. Alabama/Iowa winner; No. 3 Miami vs. Indiana/Ole Miss winner; No. 4 Georgia vs. Notre Dame/Boise State winner

Can Iowa make a deep playoff run?

The Hawkeyes have the defense to compete with anyone in the country. The question has always been whether the offense can generate enough points against elite competition. If quarterback Cade McNamara can manage the game and the running game gets going, Iowa has the formula to pull off upsets in the playoff.

Iowa fans have waited a long time for a team that can compete on the national stage. This year's squad looks like it has the pieces to make some noise, starting with a statement opportunity in Columbus this Saturday.

This article is based on the College Football Playoff bracket projection published by CBS Sports on Sept. 29, 2026.