Iowa Senate Race a Toss-Up: Hinson vs. Turek Could Decide Senate Control

With the 2026 midterms just four months away, Iowa's Senate race between Republican Representative Ashley Hinson and Democratic State Representative Joshua Turek has emerged as a critical battleground that could determine control of the U.S. Senate. According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, the race is tied, making it one of the closest contests in the nation.

Nationally, Republicans face an uphill battle. The latest RCP Average for the Generic Congressional Ballot shows Democrats leading by 6 points, an 8.7-point swing from 2024 when Republicans won that measure by 2.7 points. Betting markets on Polymarket give Republicans just a 14% chance of keeping the House and a 54% chance of holding on