Iowa Senate Race Shifts to 'Lean Democrat' as Trump Approval Slumps

Less than two and a half months before the midterms, the Cook Political Report has moved the Iowa Senate race from a toss-up to “lean Democrat,” a striking shift in a state President Donald Trump carried by more than 13 points in 2024.

The independent election forecaster also adjusted ratings in Texas, moving the Senate race from “lean Republican” to a toss-up and the governor’s race from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” The changes come as Trump’s approval ratings hit record lows and GOP candidates enter the final stretch of the campaign season.

What changed in the Iowa Senate race?

Democrats recently selected state Representative Josh Turek, a more moderate candidate, as their nominee to challenge Republican Representative Ashley Hinson for Iowa’s open Senate seat. Recent polling has produced mixed results, but the Cook Political Report’s shift signals growing Democratic optimism in a state that last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 2014, when Tom Harkin retired.

While Iowa has voted for Trump in three consecutive presidential elections, down-ballot races have told a different story. Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand won statewide reelection in 2022, and some political analysts argue Iowa remains a purple state despite its recent Republican trends.

Governor’s race also moves toward Democrats

Sand is now the Democratic nominee for governor, facing Republican Zach Lahn. That race has also shifted to “lean Democrat” in the latest Cook Political Report update, with polls consistently showing Sand holding a several-point edge as he works to keep the race focused on local Iowa issues.

In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico is running against Republican Ken Paxton for the Senate seat. Paxton, the state’s attorney general, won the GOP primary with Trump’s backing after the president helped push out incumbent Senator John Cornyn. However, Paxton has been dogged by his wife’s accusations of cheating and ongoing corruption allegations on the campaign trail.

The last Democrat to win statewide office in Texas was in 1994, but recent polls have shown Talarico with a slight edge as both candidates prepare for the November election.

What does this mean for Republican control of the Senate?

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 seat majority in the Senate, and Democrats face a difficult map to retake the chamber this fall. But the Democratic campaign arm quickly embraced the Cook Political Report’s analysis, arguing their path to the majority runs through six Republican-held states now rated as toss-ups or leaning Democratic.

The Cook Political Report acknowledged that Republicans maintain a structural advantage in the two Senate races, but noted,

“it's increasingly hard to ignore both public and private polling showing them to be more competitive than the Lean category reflects.”

Texas Governor Greg Abbott, a close Trump ally, appears to be maintaining a lead in his reelection bid against Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa, though polls show that race has also tightened slightly.

What should Iowa voters watch for?

With Election Day approaching in November, Iowa voters will see intense campaigning in both the Senate and governor’s races. The Cook Political Report’s rating changes suggest national Democrats see opportunity in the Hawkeye State, while Republicans will likely emphasize Trump’s policy record and local economic issues to hold the line.

For Iowans, the shifting ratings mean more attention from national campaigns, more advertising dollars, and a clearer focus on the issues that matter most to the state, including agriculture, energy independence, and economic growth.

Frequently asked questions

Why did the Cook Political Report shift the Iowa Senate race?

The Cook Political Report moved the race from a toss-up to “lean Democrat” based on public and private polling showing the race more competitive than previously expected. Democratic nominee Josh Turek has shown strength in recent surveys against Republican Ashley Hinson.

Has Iowa elected Democrats to statewide office recently?

Yes. Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand won statewide reelection in 2022. The last Democrat to represent Iowa in the U.S. Senate was Tom Harkin, who retired in 2014.

How did Trump’s approval ratings affect these race ratings?

The Cook Political Report noted Trump’s record-low approval ratings as a factor in the shifting dynamics. Trump won Iowa and Texas by more than 13 points in 2024, but his current standing has made down-ballot races more competitive for Republicans.