Maine Senate race a toss up as Collins faces new Democrat challenger
Maine's high stakes Senate race is now a toss up after Democrats replaced their scandal plagued nominee with a progressive former state senator, a development that could have ripple effects for Iowa's own Senate contest.
The Fox News Power Rankings now rate the Maine showdown as a toss up, putting it alongside Iowa's Senate race as one of roughly a dozen contests that will determine whether Republicans keep their slim majority or Democrats retake the chamber.
Who is the new Democrat challenger?
Troy Jackson, a former Maine Senate president and fifth generation logger, is all but certain to become the Democratic nominee after the party's previous candidate, David Platner, dropped out following a rape allegation. Platner denied the report but stepped aside amid pressure from party leaders.
Jackson won the vast majority of the 500 voting delegates chosen this past weekend by Democrats across Maine's 16 counties. He is expected to be formally nominated at Saturday's state party convention in Bangor.
Jackson came in third place in Maine's Democratic primary for governor last month. He quickly positioned himself as the heir to Platner's progressive and populist movement.
What does Jackson stand for?
Jackson is running on a platform aimed at working class voters, but his policy positions are far to the left of most Iowans. He supports raising taxes on billionaires, a government run universal healthcare system known as Medicare for all, abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and opposes military aid to Israel.
He has the backing of Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and the progressive group Our Revolution, which grew out of Sanders 2016 presidential campaign.
Can Susan Collins hold on?
Senator Susan Collins, a moderate Republican seeking a sixth term, faces a tough political environment. President Donald Trump's underwater approval ratings, persistent inflation, and an unpopular war with Iran are weighing on GOP candidates nationwide.
Collins has a history of defying expectations. In 2020, she trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon but won reelection by nearly 9 points. She recently reached a milestone by casting her 10,000th consecutive Senate vote, earning bipartisan praise.
But Democrats are attacking Collins over her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, whose vote later helped overturn Roe v. Wade. They also criticized her support for ICE funding after a fatal shooting in Maine involving ICE agents.
What this means for Iowa
The Maine race is ranked as a toss up alongside Iowa's own Senate contest in the Fox News Power Rankings. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the 2026 midterms to retake the majority they lost in 2024.
Iowa voters should watch this race closely. A Democratic pickup in Maine would make it harder for Republicans to hold the Senate, and could shift the national political landscape heading into 2028.
The contest between Collins and Jackson is one of roughly a dozen Senate races that will determine control of the chamber. With both parties pouring resources into these battlegrounds, every vote will count.