Maine's 'As Maine Goes' Slogan Faces Its Biggest Test Yet in Susan Collins' Reelection Fight

With the midterm election less than a month away, all signs point to a tough night for Republicans nationwide. The generic congressional ballot shows Democrats holding a nine-point lead, and swing state races in Georgia and North Carolina look increasingly difficult for the GOP. But here's the twist: even in a brutal political environment, one of the most surprising Republican survival stories may be playing out in deep blue Maine, where five-term incumbent Sen. Susan Collins is defying the odds.

Maine's famous political motto, As Maine goes, so goes the nation, could be disproven this cycle. While Democrats are poised to make significant gains across the country, Collins appears to be holding her own against former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, her Democratic challenger. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll shows Collins with a three-point lead, and a CBS poll puts the race in a dead heat. This resilience, despite a state that Kamala Harris won by seven points and a Democratic governor and legislature, has political observers on both sides of the aisle taking notice.

Why Is Susan Collins Still Competitive in a Blue State?

Collins has cultivated a unique political brand over nearly three decades in the Senate. First elected in 1996, she has built a reputation as an independent-minded Republican who prioritizes bringing federal dollars back to Maine's rural communities. As chairwoman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, she regularly touts the millions she secures for the state, a message that resonates with voters who value practical results over party loyalty.

Her crossover appeal is evident in the polling data. The Times/Siena survey shows Collins winning 44 percent of women voters, compared to just 39 percent for Republican Senate nominees in Michigan and 40 percent in Kansas. More strikingly, 13 percent of self-identified Democrats say they would vote for Collins if the election were held today. In Michigan, by contrast, 95 percent of Democrats support their party's nominee, Abdul El-Sayed.

Collins' Independent Streak Sets Her Apart

Collins has worked hard to maintain her independent image, even when it means breaking with her own party. She voted to convict President Donald Trump after January 6, opposed the confirmation of Pete Hegseth as Defense secretary, and voted against Todd Blanche's confirmation as attorney general. She also opposed the One, Beautiful Bill, a major legislative priority for the Trump administration.

These votes have endeared her to moderate and independent voters, who see her as a check on extreme partisanship. In the Times/Siena poll, Collins leads Jackson 51 percent to 45 percent among voters identifying as other, a category that includes independents. This support is critical in a state where unaffiliated voters often decide close races.

Democrats' Hopes Hinge on Tying Collins to Trump

Democrats have tried to paint Collins as a Trump ally, pointing to her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and her support for increased ICE funding. Earlier this year, an ICE officer in Biddeford shot and killed Joan Sebastian Guerrero, and Democrats like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have attempted to blame Collins for the death, despite her efforts to implement body cameras for ICE agents.

But Collins has largely avoided direct criticism from Trump himself, a fact that speaks to her unique position. She is likely the only Republican who can hold this seat, and Trump seems to understand that attacking her would only hurt the party's chances in a state he lost by double digits.

History Suggests Collins Could Surprise Again

This isn't the first time Collins has been counted out. In 2020, polls showed her trailing significantly, yet she won by nearly 8.6 points even as Joe Biden carried Maine by nine points. The dynamics are different this year, particularly on abortion, where the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson decision has shifted the political landscape. Collins, who once enjoyed support from pro-abortion rights Republicans, now faces a more complicated environment.

Still, her ability to outperform expectations is well documented. If she pulls off another victory, it would be a testament to her political acumen and the enduring power of local, constituent-focused representation.

What This Means for Iowa and the Nation

For Iowa voters, the Maine race offers a reminder that individual candidates matter. While national trends often dominate headlines, local issues and personal relationships with voters can defy partisan tides. Iowa has its own competitive races this cycle, and the outcome in Maine could signal whether Republicans can hold onto seats in states where Trump's influence is a double-edged sword.

As the midterms approach, all eyes will be on Maine to see if the state's motto holds true. If Collins wins, it will be a clear sign that voters value independence and local representation over party loyalty, a message that could resonate far beyond New England.