New Hampshire Senate Primary: Pappas Leads Manzur as GOP Eyes Swing State

New Hampshire Democrats head to the polls Tuesday to pick a nominee for the open Senate seat, with moderate Congressman Chris Pappas holding a commanding lead over progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. But Republicans see an opportunity in the Granite State, and recent polls show the general election could be tighter than many expected.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring, leaving the seat open in a state that narrowly backed Kamala Harris in 2024. The race is rated as Lean Democratic by forecasters, but GOP frontrunner John Sununu, endorsed by President Donald Trump, has pulled within striking distance in recent surveys.

What the polls show in the Democratic primary

The latest University of New Hampshire poll, taken August 20-24, shows Pappas leading Manzur 47 percent to 34 percent among 881 Democratic primary voters. That is a much closer race than earlier surveys, which had Pappas ahead by 24 points in June and 54 points in January.

Other polls give Pappas a larger cushion. A Saint Anselm College poll from August 17-18 has him up 59 percent to 28 percent. A Pappas internal poll from GQR shows a 71 percent to 15 percent lead.

Pappas, who has represented eastern New Hampshire since 2019, is viewed as a moderate. His family owns the Puritan Backroom restaurant in Manchester, credited with inventing chicken tenders. Manzur, by contrast, has aligned herself with the progressive wing, emphasizing Medicare for All and criticism of Israel.

Prediction markets favor Pappas heavily

Both Kalshi and Polymarket give Pappas a 98 percent chance of winning Tuesday's primary. Prediction markets aggregate real-money wagers into probability estimates, and while they are not always accurate, they reflect trader sentiment at a given moment.

Republicans see a competitive general election

Two recent polls show Sununu, the former senator and brother of former Governor Chris Sununu, in a statistical tie with Pappas. A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll has Sununu at 37 percent and Pappas at 36 percent. The UNH poll shows Sununu leading 45 percent to 43 percent.

Other surveys are more favorable to Pappas. A Saint Anselm College poll has him up 7 points over Sununu. A GOP internal poll from Peak Insights shows Pappas ahead by just 1 point.

Sununu has consolidated Republican support and earned Trump's endorsement. He comes from a well-known political family, which adds uncertainty for Democrats who hoped to hold the seat easily.

Pappas sounds the alarm

Despite his primary lead, Pappas has sent fundraising emails warning the race is close, including one titled simply, “We're losing.” Some Democrats worry national groups are ignoring New Hampshire. Kathy Sullivan, former chair of the state Democratic Party, told The New York Times: “I get these ads, emails, pitching donations. They always put up these other states and never New Hampshire. It drives me crazy.”

New Hampshire is closely divided

The state has a libertarian streak and independents are key. As of August 3, there were 351,815 unaffiliated voters, compared to 299,976 Republicans and 247,069 Democrats. Harris won the state by just under 3 points in 2024, while Republican Kelly Ayotte won the governorship by 9 points that same year.

What a GOP win would mean for the Senate

Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need to flip four seats to win control, and losing New Hampshire would make that math much harder. They would then need to win in conservative states like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, or Texas, a difficult but not impossible task.

What happens next

Polls close at 7 p.m. ET in most large cities, though exact hours vary by municipality. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate the race as Lean Democratic.

This article was adapted from a Newsweek report by John Damon.