New Polls Show Democrats Gaining Ground in Iowa Senate Race, Nationwide Battlegrounds

Recent polling suggests Democrats are surging in key Senate races across the country, including Iowa, raising the possibility that the party could seize control of both chambers of Congress in November. The numbers have Republican strategists worried, even as they caution that polling remains an inexact science.

An AARP poll released Monday showed Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by 11 points in North Carolina. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is tied or leading Republican Ken Paxton in several recent surveys. And here in Iowa, a Marist poll has Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson by 8 points, though the race is expected to tighten.

Iowa has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 18 years. But a Trafalgar Group survey, a Republican-leaning pollster, shows Hinson edging out Turek by just 2 points, a margin that falls within the range of error.

What the latest Senate polls show in Iowa and across the country

The Trafalgar Group poll suggests the Iowa race is far closer than many expected. Hinson, the Republican incumbent, holds a narrow 2-point lead over Turek, according to that survey. The Marist poll, by contrast, gives Turek an 8-point advantage.

Analysts say the Iowa race reflects a broader national trend. Inside Elections projects Democrats could gain between two and four Senate seats, while Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 54 percent chance of winning the upper chamber. Cook Political Report founder Charlie Cook told ABC News that Democrats could pick up four to five Senate seats and as many as 20 House seats.

“The House has been kind of a done deal for a good while,” Cook said. “But the Senate, a year ago, it wasn’t realistic to think that the Senate might flip.”

Why are Democrats gaining in Senate races?

Strategists point to voter anger over the economy and the Trump administration’s war in Iran as the primary drivers. The latest Emerson College Polling survey shows Democrats holding an 11-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.

“It’s overwhelmingly the increase in inflation and an economy that can’t seem to get going that has created an environment that’s favorable for the party out of power at the moment,” said Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

Brian Darling, a former top aide to Sen. Rand Paul, said the Iran war is the single issue that could move voters back to Republicans, if the administration can present an end game.

“If a deal was cut on the Iran war, and if there was an actual winding down and an end game that was presented to the American people, I think that would be very helpful to Republicans,” Darling said. “I think that is the one issue that would move a lot of voters back over into the Republican fold.”

Republicans hold cash advantage but face tough headwinds

One bright spot for the GOP is money. Ad-tracking firm AdImpact shows Republicans outspending Democrats in future ad reservations in eight of nine competitive Senate elections. Democrats narrowly lead in North Carolina.

The GOP also stands to benefit from a recent Supreme Court ruling that allows campaigns and state parties to coordinate and spend unlimited funds.

Still, the polling trend is hard to ignore. Republican strategist Steve Jarding, who has worked on Democratic Senate campaigns, estimates his party could win six to seven seats.

“If you’re the party in power, and your message isn’t working for you, it’s almost too late by June. But certainly, you get into the first of October where we’re at, it’s almost impossible to change that narrative,” Jarding said.

Republicans also point to recent polling misses in Democratic primaries in Wisconsin and Michigan as reason for caution.

“Democrats should think twice before relying too heavily on the same rosy polling that grossly overestimated socialist Abdul El-Sayed in last month’s Michigan primary,” said Bernadette Breslin, a spokeswoman for the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.

“Republicans can look at the fact that the polling is an inexact science, and it could be pretty far off,” Darling said. “But notwithstanding that, it still doesn’t look great because the polls have been overwhelmingly bad news for Republicans.”

What does this mean for Iowa voters?

For Iowa voters, the stakes are clear. Control of the Senate could hinge on races like the one between Hinson and Turek. With the House out of session until after the election and the Senate in town for only a few more days, much of the burden falls on President Trump to rally the base.

“I don’t feel good about the election as a Republican,” Darling said. “I think it’s going to be a bad day.”

The election is Nov. 3. Early voting is already underway in many states, including Iowa.