Obama Endorses Josh Turek in Iowa Senate Race as GOP Holds Firm
Former President Barack Obama endorsed Democratic Senate candidate Josh Turek on Wednesday in a video of the two playing basketball, recalling his two Iowa victories and urging voters to back Turek's bid for the U.S. Senate. The endorsement comes as Iowa, once a battleground, has become a Republican stronghold, but Democrats see the race as a potential pickup opportunity.
Iowa backed Obama in both 2008 and 2012, but the state has shifted sharply rightward, supporting President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. The race between Turek, a state legislator and Paralympic gold medalist, and Representative Ashley Hinson, a Republican, is one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country. They are vying to succeed retiring Senator Joni Ernst.
Democrats have not won a Senate seat in Iowa since Senator Tom Harkin's election in 2008. The race is a barometer of whether Democrats can regain ground in the Midwest after a decade of losses.
What Does the Obama Endorsement Mean for Turek?
In a video released Wednesday, Turek and Obama played a version of the basketball game 'H-O-R-S-E,' with the letters 'I-O-W-A.' While shooting hoops, Obama said, 'I know a little something about winning Iowa,' referencing his 2008 caucus victory that springboarded his presidential campaign.
Turek said, 'Everywhere we go, urban areas, rural areas, people are ready for change.' Obama ended the video emphasizing his endorsement: 'I've seen enough. Not only did I get whooped. But you've got here, a man of character, somebody who knows how to win. Now the ball is in your court, Iowa. Let's make sure that we send Josh Turek to the United States' Senate.'
Political analysts say the endorsement may not move the needle. Steffen Schmidt, emeritus professor of political science at Iowa State University, told Newsweek, 'The Iowa Senate race is as dead heat as I've seen.' He added that the endorsements, Trump for Hinson and Obama for Turek, 'are a wash,' noting that 'Independents will be the deciding factor in this context.'
Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, told Newsweek, 'We have the race as Leans Republican, so we do view it as competitive, but it's still ultimately a state that Donald Trump won by 13 points, so it's a heavy lift for any Democrat.'
How Do Polls and Fundraising Compare?
Polling averages suggest a competitive contest. RealClearPolling's average shows the race tied at 46.7 percent each, while other polling averages give Hinson a narrow advantage. A Fox News poll found Turek inching ahead of Hinson, 50 percent to her 46 percent. The latest poll from The New York Times/Siena shows Hinson up 2 points, 48 percent to 46 percent.
Fundraising is a key factor. Hinson has raised over $10.2 million, with about $6.75 million cash on hand. Turek has raised more than $6.27 million and has roughly $2.36 million cash on hand. Hinson has Trump's endorsement, while Turek has Obama's.
What Issues Matter to Iowa Voters?
The war in Iran has impacted Iowans and emerged as a voting issue. Hinson, who backed the war, has addressed the deaths of Iowa service members. Turek has warned against a prolonged conflict that could draw the United States deeper into the region and drive up prices.
Schmidt told Newsweek, 'The unknown factor that could give the Democrat an edge is the terrible condition so many farms are facing. Tariffs, competition from China, expensive Diesel and gas prices suggest that many Republican voting farmers and rural folk could vote for a Democrat this time.'
Bernadette Breslin, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, previously told Newsweek, 'Democrats like Troy Jackson and Josh Turek are the new faces of the Left's socialist takeover, campaigning on an agenda to raise taxes, green-light reckless spending, and make life even less affordable for American families.'
What Is the Outlook for the Race?
The Cook Political Report shifted its rating of the Iowa race in June from 'Likely Republican' to 'Lean Republican.' Prediction markets give Hinson the edge: Kalshi puts her odds at 59 percent, and Polymarket at 57 percent. With fewer than 100 days until Election Day, the race remains highly competitive and expensive.
Both campaigns are likely to intensify efforts to win over independent voters. Upcoming polling, fundraising totals, and candidate debates will offer key indicators of whether Democrats can make gains in Iowa or if Republicans can maintain their advantage.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas