Ohio State's No. 1 Ranking Carries a Curse That Should Worry Iowa Fans
Ohio State opens the 2026 season as the top-ranked team in the country, but history says that is bad news for the Buckeyes and potentially good news for the Iowa Hawkeyes. The AP preseason poll has crowned Ohio State No. 1 for the first time since 2015, yet every time the Buckeyes have started on top, they have failed to finish the job.
For Iowa football fans, this is more than a trivia question. The Hawkeyes host the Buckeyes in Iowa City this fall, and the game could be a defining moment in a season where Ohio State faces one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
Why the preseason No. 1 ranking is a curse for Ohio State
The numbers are striking. Since 2000, only two teams have started the season ranked No. 1 in the AP poll and gone on to win the national championship: 2004 USC and 2017 Alabama. Every other preseason favorite has fallen short, often in spectacular fashion.
Ohio State's own history fits the pattern. All of the program's national titles came in seasons when the Buckeyes were not the preseason No. 1. When they have held the top spot in August, January has brought disappointment.
Last season, Texas learned the same lesson. The Longhorns entered 2025 as the consensus No. 1, stumbled through a brutal schedule, and missed the College Football Playoff entirely. In 2012, USC started on top and collapsed to a 7-6 record.
Ohio State's brutal 2026 schedule includes a trip to Iowa
The Buckeyes face a gauntlet that would test any roster. Road games at Texas, Iowa, and USC are paired with home contests against Oregon and Michigan. That is six premier opponents in a single regular season, leaving almost no margin for error.
For Iowa, the September 26 matchup at Kinnick Stadium represents a golden opportunity. The Hawkeyes have built a reputation for upsetting top-ranked teams in Iowa City, and the pressure on Ohio State will be immense by the time they arrive.
Analysts project Ohio State could finish the regular season at 9-3, a record that would normally be respectable but would feel like a disaster given the preseason expectations. Head coach Ryan Day may find himself arguing for playoff inclusion based on strength of schedule, much like Texas coach Steve Sarkisian did last year.
Ryan Day remains confident despite the historical odds
Day is not shying away from the challenge. The Buckeyes return elite talent, including wide receiver Jeremiah Smith and quarterback Julian Sayin, and added a star-studded coaching staff with Matt Patricia on defense and Arthur Smith on offense.
On paper, this roster has everything needed to dominate. But the expanded 12-team playoff provides a cushion that did not exist in previous eras. A single loss no longer ends a national title dream, though multiple slip-ups could still prove fatal.
To me, it's exciting. Because with the way the new playoff format is set, you know, we can learn a lot about ourselves and get really salty, Day said.
What does this mean for Iowa's playoff hopes?
If Ohio State stumbles in Iowa City, the ripple effects could shake up the entire Big Ten race. The Hawkeyes would gain a marquee win that could carry significant weight with the playoff selection committee, while the Buckeyes would face an uphill climb to recover.
Iowa has not beaten a No. 1 ranked team since 1985, but this Ohio State team carries the weight of a decades-long curse. The pressure of being the preseason favorite has broken many great teams before, and the Buckeyes now face the toughest road of any contender in the country.
Whether the curse continues or Ohio State finally breaks it will be decided on the field. For Iowa fans, the hope is that history repeats itself.
Frequently asked questions about Ohio State's preseason ranking
How often has the preseason No. 1 team won the national championship?
Only twice since 2000. USC in 2004 and Alabama in 2017 are the only teams to start at No. 1 and finish as champions in the 21st century.
When does Iowa play Ohio State in 2026?
The Hawkeyes host the Buckeyes on September 26 at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City.
What is Ohio State's record when starting the season ranked No. 1?
The Buckeyes have never won a national championship in a season when they began the year as the preseason No. 1 in the AP poll.