Pollsters Predict Democrats Will Retake House, But Iowa Senate Race Could Buck Trend

Six leading pollsters and political experts interviewed by The New York Times believe Democrats are on track to reclaim control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. However, they expect Republicans to hold onto the Senate, with Iowa's open Senate race emerging as a key battleground that could defy the national trend.

The experts pointed to President Donald Trump's weak approval ratings as a major headwind for the GOP, but argued that structural advantages in Senate races and congressional redistricting will limit Democratic gains. For Iowa voters, the race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek to replace retiring Sen. Chuck Grassley is one to watch closely.

What the Pollsters Are Saying About the House

New Republic writer Perry Bacon told the Times that Trump's dismal approval ratings suggest a massive House defeat for the president's party. But he added that polarization, the sorting of the electorate, and seats Republicans gained through redistricting will minimize GOP losses.

Carlos Odio, founder of Equis Research, also forecast a Democratic House takeover but said he does not expect a broad Democratic wave. Groups that swung hardest toward Trump in 2024, Odio said, have not entirely turned against his party yet.

Patrick Ruffini, a pollster at Echelon Insights, argued that a shrinking number of competitive House districts will prevent Democrats from translating their generic-ballot advantage into a commanding majority. Without middecade redistricting, Ruffini said, the GOP would face a 25- to 30-seat loss. Still, he noted, the redrawn maps do not insulate Republicans from losing their majority.

Nate Silver, founder of the Silver Bulletin, also predicted Democrats will retake the House. He said Maine has become a more difficult Senate pickup opportunity after Graham Platner's departure from the race, which could complicate efforts to unify around a new nominee against Sen. Susan Collins.

Iowa Senate Race: A Potential Bright Spot for Republicans

Silver specifically highlighted Iowa's open Senate race as one to watch. The contest between GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek could be a bellwether for the national mood.

Iowa has been a little under the radar, Silver told the Times. But sometimes being below the radar is helpful. The race won't attract as much money as, say, Texas, and Turek might not be as easy for Republicans to typecast as James Talarico.

For Iowa conservatives, Hinson's campaign represents a chance to hold a seat that has been reliably Republican for decades. Turek, a Democrat, will need to appeal to moderate and independent voters in a state that Trump carried comfortably in 2024.

Senate Outlook: Democrats Face Uphill Climb

Charlotte Swasey, author of the Medium Data newsletter, said Democrats' path to a Senate majority depends on defeating Sen. Susan Collins in Maine or pulling off victories in several states that Trump carried comfortably. The polling is so patchy that it's hard to know which of those seats might flip, she said.

Lynn Vavreck, a political scientist at UCLA, said she expects Democrats to make only modest gains in the House. If Republicans are dismayed, they probably won't vote for a Democrat, but maybe they stay home instead, Vavreck said. There just aren't that many swing voters, but the few who remain are deciding elections. If Trump's approval rating improves among them, so will Republicans' prospects.

Bacon said he is watching the Ohio Senate contest between incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown. I am intrigued, but still doubtful, that a Democrat can win Ohio again, Bacon told the Times. And while I respect Brown, in this era of skepticism about Washington and career politicians, I am surprised a retread remains so competitive.

What This Means for Iowa Voters

For Iowans, the 2026 midterms will test whether the state's conservative lean can withstand national headwinds. The Hinson-Turek race will be a key indicator of whether Trump's approval ratings drag down Republican candidates in the state or whether local issues and candidate quality can overcome them.

Just The News Iowa will continue to follow this race closely as new polling and campaign developments emerge. Voters should pay attention to how candidates address issues like agriculture, energy independence, parental rights, and public safety, which remain top priorities for Iowa families.