Trump Aide Warns Iowa Senate Race Could Be Tougher Than Expected

Republicans should brace for a difficult midterm election this November, with Iowa's Senate race shaping up as one of the most competitive battlegrounds in the country, according to former Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien.

Stepien told Newsmax's Sunday Report that history is working against the GOP, which is fighting to hold its Senate majority in a cycle where the president's party typically loses ground. He specifically flagged Iowa, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas as states where Republican candidates face headwinds despite President Donald Trump's strong 2024 performances there.

Why Iowa's Senate Race Is Closer Than Republicans Want

Iowa voters have shown they are willing to split tickets, Stepien noted, pointing to recent Democratic governors in the state. While Trump carried Iowa comfortably in 2024, the Senate race is tightening, and Stepien argued that the state's Republican identity is more tied to Trump personally than to the party brand.

Those states are very red, but they are mostly red because of Trump, Stepien said.

Economic Pressures Hitting Iowa Farmers

Stepien also pointed to economic factors that could complicate the GOP's path in Iowa, particularly higher fertilizer prices affecting the state's agricultural sector. With Iowa's economy deeply tied to farming, rising input costs could weigh on voter sentiment heading into November.

National issues are a factor, Stepien said, but he argued the bigger challenge is that states like Iowa are more Trumpy than they are Republican.

Trump's Absence From the Ballot Creates Turnout Challenge

The core problem for Republican candidates in 2026, Stepien explained, is that Trump will not be on the ballot. That leaves incumbents and challengers alike needing to motivate the president's most loyal supporters without his name at the top of the ticket.

The problem for 2026 candidates is that Trump is not on the ballot, Stepien said.

He predicted Trump will remain heavily involved in the campaign trail during the final stretch, working to make it feel as though he is on the ballot even when he is not.

Texas Race: Paxton Predicted to Win, But It Will Be Close

Stepien also weighed in on the Texas Senate race, where Republican Ken Paxton is facing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. He predicted Paxton will win but warned the margin will be tighter than Republicans would prefer.

Do I think Paxton is going to win? I do, Stepien said. Do I think it is going to be closer than Republicans want? Yes.

Stepien compared the race to 2018, when Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly defeated Democrat Beto O'Rourke in a contest that went down to the wire. He noted that Paxton's primary opponent, Sen. John Cornyn, had flaws but had also been vetted by Texas voters across four successful Senate campaigns.

Cruz Warns of Consequences If Democrats Take Congress

Sen. Ted Cruz, appearing on NBC's Meet the Press, warned that a Democratic takeover of Congress would halt Trump's legislative agenda entirely.

If the Democrats take the Senate and House, we will see the entire Trump legislative agenda grind to a halt, Cruz said. We will see nonstop impeachment circus. We will see a relentless attack of subpoenas and investigation.

History Suggests GOP Will Lose Seats

Stepien pointed to historical trends as a warning sign for Republicans. Only three times in the last century has the sitting president's party avoided losing seats in the midterms.

Midterm elections are never fun for the party in charge, Stepien said. History tells us that three times in the last hundred years has the sitting president's party not lost seats. So history tells us Republicans will likely lose seats this November.

He drew a parallel to 2018, when he served as White House political director and Republicans lost 40 House seats despite a strong economy. The difference this cycle, he said, is that Trump will not be on the ballot, making voter turnout among his base the central challenge for GOP candidates.

You are going to see the president very active on the campaign trail this November, trying to make it seem like he is on the ballot, Stepien said.

What This Means for Iowa Voters

For Iowa voters, the message is clear: the Senate race is not a foregone conclusion. With economic concerns over fertilizer prices, trade ties, and agricultural costs, Republicans cannot assume the state will deliver a comfortable victory.

Stepien's warning suggests that Iowa Republicans will need Trump's active involvement and a strong ground game to hold the seat. Voters should expect a highly competitive campaign in the coming weeks, with both parties pouring resources into the state.

Photo: NewsMax