Trump Endorsement Streak Hits Rough Patch as Iowa Race Highlights Limits of Influence
President Donald Trump's endorsement record took another hit this week as three of his preferred candidates lost primary races in Florida and Wyoming, bringing the total number of defeated endorsees for Congress and statewide office to 10 this year. The losses come as Iowa voters recently demonstrated their own independence in a gubernatorial primary that saw a Trump-backed congressman fall to a political newcomer.
What happened in Tuesday's primaries?
Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who faced allegations of sexual misconduct, domestic violence, and campaign finance violations, lost to former television journalist Ryan Elijah in Florida's 7th district. Mills has denied all wrongdoing. In Florida's 19th district, Catalina Lauf, co-founder of a children's health company and proponent of the Make America Healthy Again movement, was defeated by businessman Jim Schwartzel. Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder, Trump's pick for governor, also lost to state Sen. Eric Barlow.
On Wednesday, Trump moved quickly to minimize the damage, declaring he had told Mills to get out of the race, but he wouldn't listen.
How does this compare to Trump's overall endorsement record?
Despite the recent setbacks, Trump's endorsement remains highly influential. According to an NBC News analysis, 67 of his endorsed candidates have won in August races, with only six losing. White House spokesperson Allison Schuster emphasized the president's track record, stating:
President Trump's endorsement is the most powerful endorsement in the history of American politics. Anyone claiming otherwise is a complete and utter fool. Out of more than 260 endorsements, the President has a 97% success rate.
The 10 losses this year approach the 12 defeats Trump saw in 2022, his worst endorsement cycle, according to The Washington Post.
What does this mean for Iowa voters?
Iowa has already provided a notable example of the limits of presidential influence. Rep. Randy Feenstra, who received Trump's endorsement in the Iowa gubernatorial primary, lost to businessman Zach Lahn, who secured the support of MAHA movement members. This result suggests that Iowa Republican voters are making their own choices based on local concerns rather than simply following national endorsements.
Who else has lost with Trump's backing?
Several other Trump endorsees have fallen short this cycle. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) lost to Charlie Hatcher, the state's former agriculture commissioner. Amir Hassan, a Navy veteran, lost a Michigan House primary to Thomas Smith. Sid Miller lost his Texas agriculture commissioner race to Nate Sheets. In gubernatorial races, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones lost in Georgia, Lt. Gov. Pam Evette lost in South Carolina, and MyPillow founder Mike Lindell lost in Minnesota.
What's next for Trump's endorsement power?
The president's influence faces another test in a South Carolina special election. Trump has heavily promoted Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) as a long-term replacement for her late brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, despite her admission that she is not that informed on national security. She faces Rep. Ralph Norman in a runoff next week.
The recent defeats highlight that Trump's endorsement, while powerful, cannot always overcome fundamental candidate weaknesses or local voter sentiment. For Iowa Republicans, the message is clear: endorsements matter, but local issues and candidate quality remain decisive factors at the ballot box.