President Donald Trump wrapped up a 30-rally sprint across 32 days with twin stops in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday, November 1, telling a Dubuque crowd to treat Tuesday's midterms as a referendum on his own presidency.
It is a high-stakes gamble for Iowa Republicans, who are defending a Senate seat and the governor's mansion in a state Trump carried by 13 points just two years ago.
Trump's closing message in Dubuque
Speaking at the Five Flags Center, Trump urged supporters to vote as if his name were on the ballot, according to ITV Hub, which covered the rally. The president framed the election in personal terms and warned of the consequences of Democratic control of Congress.
Trump defended rising gasoline prices as the necessary cost of the ongoing conflict with Iran, calling it a small price to pay for national and global security.
A vote for any Democrat anywhere in the country is a vote to put a deranged group of extremists in power.
Trump also waded directly into Iowa's Senate race, describing Republican candidate Ashley Hinson as running against what he called a woke, far-left radical in Josh Turek.
How Trump's midterm strategy could backfire on Republicans
The president's decision to place himself at the center of the campaign carries obvious risk. His approval rating stands at 35.6 percent on average, according to polling data from MS NOW, a historically low figure for a president this close to a midterm election. Democrats are hoping that opposition to Trump will drive their voters to the polls in the same numbers his rallies energize his own base.
The president's closing message has drawn criticism from some analysts who argue he has given down-ballot Republicans little to run on beyond his own personality, as The Atlantic reported. Polls show voters are skeptical of his economic policies and the direction of the country.
Iowa Senate race between Ashley Hinson and Josh Turek is a toss-up
The stakes are sharpest in Iowa's Senate contest. Polls show the race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek is statistically tied, according to ITV Hub's reporting from the state.
Turek, a Paralympic basketball gold medalist born with spina bifida, first won his Iowa House seat by just six votes. He has campaigned on what he calls kitchen table issues, pointing to costs and corruption as his central themes.
Hinson, currently serving in the U.S. House, has emphasized her support for the Trump agenda and her record on agricultural and energy issues important to Iowa voters.
The outcome could help determine which party controls the U.S. Senate, where the balance of power remains finely balanced.
Gas prices loom over the final stretch
Trump's motorcade passed a Dubuque gas station advertising fuel at $4.19 per gallon on its way to the rally, a reminder of the economic headwinds facing his party.
Interviews with voters at the pump captured the frustration. One Dubuque resident said she was ashamed the president was in her city given the price of fuel. Another longtime resident said people are being forced to choose between filling their tanks and feeding their families.
Some Trump supporters at the rally defended the president's handling of energy prices, with one local trucking company owner saying he believes Trump is working to bring fuel costs back down.
Democratic candidate Rob Sand leads the governor's race
Beyond the Senate contest, Democrats are favored to win the governor's mansion for the first time in two decades. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat holding statewide office in Iowa, has campaigned on ending what he describes as a decade of one-party rule in Des Moines.
A Sand victory would represent a dramatic shift for a state that has moved sharply toward Republicans over the past decade.
Record early voting signals high turnout
More than 54 million Americans have already cast early ballots, a record for this stage of a midterm cycle, according to ITV Hub. The figure suggests both parties are succeeding in mobilizing their bases.
Trump's final speech before Election Day drew criticism from some observers who argued it offered little help to candidates in competitive races, as The Independent noted. The president spent a portion of his remarks discussing renovations to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool rather than making a direct case for his party's candidates, according to CNN.
Iowa voters head to the polls Tuesday to decide whether Trump's decision to make the midterms about himself was inspired strategy or a costly miscalculation for the Republican Party.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where did Trump hold his final midterm rallies?
Trump closed his 30-rally, 32-day campaign swing with stops in Dubuque, Iowa, and Kansas on the eve of the midterm elections.
Who is running for U.S. Senate in Iowa?
Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek in a race that polls show is statistically tied.
Who is favored to win the Iowa governor's race?
Democrat Rob Sand, the current state auditor, is favored to become the first Democratic governor of Iowa in two decades.