President Donald Trump arrives in Iowa on Thursday as farmers across the Midwest finish a harvest season hampered by diesel prices more than $2.50 per gallon higher than a year ago, according to U.S. News & World Report. The stop in Iowa, a state Trump has carried in three straight presidential elections, comes as Republicans defend competitive races for governor and U.S. Senate with the midterms just weeks away.
The president's swing begins Monday in Kansas, where Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces a surprisingly strong challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Trump won by 16 points in 2024. NPR reported this weekend that farmers who usually vote Republican could decide that Senate race.
Diesel at $6.30 a Gallon Hits Farmers Mid-Harvest
The timing could hardly be worse for producers. Nationwide, diesel averaged $6.30 per gallon on Friday, more than 70% higher than a year ago, according to motor club AAA. Harvest is when farmers burn through fuel fastest, running combines, hauling grain to town and moving livestock to winter pasture.
Fifth-generation Kansas farmer Glenn Brunkow, president of the Kansas Farm Bureau, described harvest as go time, but said this year the pressure is unrelenting.
It seems like it's coming at us from all directions, Brunkow said.
This is a time of year when we use a lot of fuel, and there just isn't much we can do, he added. The margins are tight, and anything that cuts into that margin really hurts.
USDA Projects Farm Income Decline as Expenses Climb
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's September forecast projects net farm income will fall 2.6% this year while production expenses rise 4.5%. Fuel and oil expenses alone are expected to jump nearly 30%, driven by refinery constraints and supply disruptions tied to the Iran war.
The Trump administration has moved to ease the burden. Earlier this month, Trump signed an executive order loosening limits on the tax-free use of red-dyed diesel, a step he said would save millions for farmers. That followed a $12 billion aid package the administration announced in December.
Those efforts have not fully quieted frustration among producers who expected their finances to improve under Trump. Brunkow, whose organization endorsed Marshall, said many farmers thought it would be better, though he believes most would still pick Trump over the alternative. He pointed to what he called unforced errors, miscalculations and bad advice with unintended consequences.
Why Farmer Frustration Matters for Iowa Republicans
The political question heading into November is not whether agricultural counties flip blue, but whether discouraged rural voters stay home. Brunkow said economic frustration does not push Republican farmers toward Democrats, but it does dampen enthusiasm for getting to the polls.
David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth, told U.S. News & World Report that his group has watched the heavy agriculture states closely since summer and is spending millions on GOP candidates in Kansas, Nebraska and elsewhere.
Farmers are squeezed between higher input prices and less of an international market because of retaliatory tariffs, McIntosh said. The economic environment has not been good.
In Iowa, where