President Donald Trump will rally in Dubuque on Sunday afternoon, making a high-stakes stop in Iowa as Republicans work to hold their 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate and their narrow edge in the House ahead of Tuesday's midterm elections.
The Iowa visit, paired with a second rally in Salina, Kansas, comes after a whirlwind week in which the events were abruptly cancelled late Thursday and then reinstated, with the Republican National Committee confirming Friday that Trump would appear in person, according to NBC News.
Why Dubuque Matters in the Midterm Map
Dubuque sits at the center of two battles Republicans cannot afford to lose. The state's Senate seat and the governorship are both on the line, and Trump carried Iowa by double digits in 2024, according to Al Jazeera Online. His return signals that party leaders view Iowa as must-win territory rather than a safe Republican stronghold.
The city also falls within Iowa's 2nd Congressional District, where the GOP is defending a seat that has grown competitive. Republican Joe Mitchell, a Generation Z candidate and former state lawmaker, faces Democratic state Representative Lindsay James in a race that could help decide control of the House, where all 435 seats are up on Tuesday.
Cancelled Rallies Are Back On
Republicans initially scrapped the Iowa and Kansas stops before reversing course and putting them back on the schedule as Trump works to preserve a Senate majority at risk of slipping away, according to the Associated Press.
A source close to the Trump administration told Al Jazeera the president would headline the previously cancelled rallies personally.
“Rallies are BACK ON!” the source said. “No one works harder, fights harder, or loves the American people more than President Donald J. Trump!”
The Sunday swing follows a one-day break at Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Florida on Saturday. He has spent recent weeks campaigning across multiple states, concentrating on turf he has won before as his party confronts headwinds, including questions from some past supporters about the economic effects of his tariff policies.
Senate Control Hangs on Tuesday's Results
Thirty-five Senate seats and every House seat are on the ballot Tuesday. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority and a slim House margin. Losing either chamber would hand Democrats the power to block Trump's agenda for his final two years in office and open the door to investigations of an administration that has so far operated with largely cooperative Republican majorities.
The Kansas stop adds another layer of drama. Salina sits in a state that last sent a Democrat to the Senate in 1932, yet incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall is locked in a surprisingly close race against Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, according to Firstpost.
Record Early Voting Adds Urgency
More than 52 million Americans have already voted in person or by mail, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab. That figure sets a record for a midterm, up from nearly 46 million who cast ballots before Election Day in 2022. The surge in early voting, tracked by PBS NewsHour, is reshaping how both parties deploy their closing arguments.
Trump has also addressed the question of whether he will accept the results of Tuesday's contests, saying he will respect the midterm outcomes if the elections are run honestly.
What to Watch in Iowa on Election Night
Iowa voters will decide several marquee races on Tuesday, including the Senate seat, the governorship, and the 2nd District contest between Mitchell and James. Trump's decision to spend his final Sunday before the election in Dubuque rather than a swing state he has never carried underscores how much the GOP is counting on Iowa's Republican base to show up.
Polling nationally shows Democrats tied with or leading Republicans in many contested races, and Trump's approval among rural Americans stood at 45 percent in October, a new low, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. For a state where rural turnout has anchored Republican victories, that number will test whether the party's ground game can overcome softening enthusiasm.
The results in Dubuque, and in the 2nd District specifically, could offer an early read on whether Republicans hold Congress. Mitchell's race against James is one of a handful of House contests that will determine whether the GOP keeps the speaker's gavel.
FAQ
When is Trump's Dubuque rally?
The rally is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, two days before the midterm elections on Tuesday.
Which Iowa races are on the ballot Tuesday?
Iowa voters will decide a U.S. Senate seat, the governorship, all four U.S. House seats including the competitive 2nd District, and state legislative offices.
How many Senate seats are up in the 2026 midterms?
Thirty-five Senate seats and all 435 House seats are on the ballot, according to Al Jazeera Online.
How many Americans have already voted early?
More than 52 million had voted in person or by mail as of the weekend, a midterm record according to the University of Florida's Election Lab.