Trump's Approval Slips in Iowa and Other Red States Ahead of Midterms
New polling shows President Donald Trump's approval ratings have dipped below water in Iowa and 38 other states, raising questions about Republican prospects in the November 3 midterm elections. The shift is especially notable in states that backed Trump by double digits in 2024, including Iowa, Texas, and Florida.
A state-by-state tracker from Civiqs finds that more registered voters disapprove of Trump's performance than approve in 39 of 50 states. In Iowa, a state Trump carried by 13 points in 2024, the disapproval gap now sits at 52 percent, according to the tracker.
Trump still holds positive net approval in 11 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming. All 11 voted for him in the last three presidential elections.
What's Driving the Decline in Trump's Approval Ratings?
Two issues stand out: the rising cost of living and the ongoing U.S. war with Iran. A Reuters/Ipsos survey from late September put Trump's national approval at 32 percent, the lowest of his political career.
An AP-NORC poll released in October found that only 17 percent of U.S. adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, while just 26 percent approve of his broader economic management. The war with Iran, now in its eighth month, has pushed fuel prices higher and strained household budgets.
According to AAA, the national average price of gasoline has reached $4.36 per gallon, up from $2.98 just before the war began in February. The conflict has cost taxpayers more than $30 billion and claimed the lives of at least 18 American service members.
Only 28 percent of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the Iran war, and 69 percent say the conflict has not been worth fighting, per the AP-NORC survey.
Iowa and Other Red States Now Competitive for Democrats
Reuters reports that Democrats are showing unexpected competitiveness in Senate races across 10 states Trump won by double digits in 2024, including Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Florida, Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Kentucky.
In Kansas, Trump won by 16 points in 2024, but a YouGov poll shows Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Republican Senator Roger Marshall by three points, 48 to 45 percent. In Kentucky, where Trump's margin was 31 points, internal polling for Democrat Charles Booker puts him within 10 points of Republican Andy Barr in the race to replace retiring Senator Mitch McConnell.
David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, told Reuters the swing is more pronounced in red states. “Not only is there a swing away from the Republican Party compared to 2024, but the swing actually seems to be somewhat bigger in red America than in blue America, and that's putting these states that Trump won easily very much into play,” he said.
Trump has dismissed the polls, telling reporters on September 28 that “the polls are fake.” He has also urged supporters to “pretend I am on the ballot” in the midterms.
What Do the Midterm Polls Mean for Republicans in Iowa?
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats must defend two seats in states Trump won in 2024 and flip four Republican-held seats to take control. At least two of those flips would need to come from states Trump carried by double digits.
A September NBC News poll gives Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, driven largely by independents. But Republicans hold a significant financial edge in key states, including Iowa.
AdImpact, an advertising-tracking firm, reports that Republicans have reserved millions more in ad spending than Democrats in Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Kansas. Senator Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, stressed the importance of that funding: “Cash is king. It's a powerful tool that is providing us with the firepower necessary to really share our message.”
Whether the polling shift translates into actual losses for Republicans will be tested when Iowans and Americans head to the polls on November 3.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does Trump's approval rating in Iowa compare to 2024?
Trump won Iowa by 13 points in 2024, but the Civiqs tracker now shows 52 percent of Iowa registered voters disapprove of his performance, a significant reversal from his electoral margin.
What are the main issues hurting Trump's approval?
The cost of living and the U.S. war with Iran are the top concerns. Gas prices have risen to $4.36 per gallon nationally, and only 17 percent approve of Trump's handling of household expenses, according to AP-NORC.
Can Republicans still win in Iowa despite these polls?
Republicans have a substantial advertising advantage in Iowa and other competitive states, which could offset Democratic polling gains. Senator Tim Scott says campaign cash is critical to spreading the GOP message.