Trump's Super PAC Drops Millions in Texas as GOP Fights to Hold 'Safe' Senate Seat

Texas has become one of the most closely watched Senate races of the 2026 midterms, an unusual twist in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988. Republicans have swept every statewide election in Texas for over three decades, yet the race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is now rated a toss-up.

On September 4, President Donald Trump announced plans to pour between $400 million and $500 million from his MAGA Inc. super PAC into Republican candidates for the November 3 election. The fund holds roughly $1 billion, and Trump said he would spend 'whatever amount of money necessary' to help the GOP, according to Reuters.

Texas is already seeing that money in action. MAGA Inc. committed $10 million to television and digital ads in the Texas Senate race, its first major investment in a general-election contest this cycle, the Associated Press reported. The move came as Reuters classified the Paxton-Talarico matchup as a toss-up on September 7.

Why did Texas suddenly become a major Republican concern?

The political shift didn't start with Trump's September spending decision. It began in the Republican primary, when Trump endorsed Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn. The endorsement, reported by The Washington Post on May 19, went against the advice of several GOP leaders who argued Paxton carried political baggage that could weaken him in the general election.

Paxton faced scandals involving accusations of infidelity and misuse of public funds. He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 but acquitted by the state Senate. Trump backed him anyway, calling Paxton 'someone who has always been extremely loyal to me and our AMAZING MAGA MOVEMENT' while criticizing Cornyn for insufficient support in earlier political battles.

Cornyn lost the Republican runoff to Paxton on May 26. The general election then produced a contest Republicans hadn't expected to be so competitive, with independent analysts rating it a toss-up.

Fundraising gap and outside spending

Talarico, a Democratic state representative, has dominated fundraising. He raised $68 million through the end of June compared to Paxton's $9 million, Axios reported. That gap allowed Talarico to flood television advertising for much of the summer. The Texas Tribune found that 51% of Talarico's total fundraising came from small donors contributing under $200, while 88% of Paxton's contributions came from larger donors.

But the latest wave of outside spending is shifting the landscape. MAGA Inc. launched a $10 million advertising campaign for Paxton. Elon Musk's America PAC reported $2.4 million in spending to support Paxton as of September 2. Lone Star Liberty PAC, a pro-Paxton super PAC, began more than $15 million in advertising from September 1, while Talarico's campaign launched a $4.4 million ad buy, according to The Texas Tribune.

What does Texas mean for Senate control?

Texas is one of nine Senate races Reuters identified on September 7 as competitive enough to affect control of the chamber. Democrats need to gain four Republican-held seats to take the majority. Every competitive GOP-held seat matters, but Texas carries unique weight given its long Republican history.

Other competitive races include North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring and former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper faces Republican Michael Whatley. Michigan is also critical, as Democrats defend the seat of retiring Senator Gary Peters, with Abdul El-Sayed facing Mike Rogers in a toss-up race. Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Georgia, Ohio, and New Hampshire round out the competitive map.

Why is Trump spending so much in Texas?

Trump's operation has made Texas an early target because the race is more competitive than Republicans would normally expect. His September 4 announcement aimed to reassure GOP donors and activists that MAGA Inc. would support candidates in tough races, Reuters reported.

The advertising campaign focuses on taxes and affordability. MAGA Inc.'s Texas ads attack Talarico over his support for higher taxes on wealthier households, while portraying Paxton as a candidate who would back tax breaks for first-time homebuyers and families with children. Talarico's spokesperson JT Ennis rejected the claims, saying the ads misrepresented the Democrat's position on broader tax increases.

Talarico has built his campaign around affordability, with one of his largest ad pushes featuring him speaking outside a food store, The Texas Tribune reported on July 20.

What's at stake for Iowa and the GOP?

For Iowa voters watching the national landscape, the Texas race is a bellwether. A Democratic win would break a decades-long Republican hold on a key Senate seat, while a Republican victory preserves one of the party's most important strongholds. The outcome could shift the balance of power in Washington, affecting everything from judicial confirmations to legislative priorities that ripple into Iowa.

The November 3 election will decide the Texas seat and contribute to the broader battle for Senate control. With Democrats needing four gains to take the chamber, Texas could prove decisive beyond its own borders.