Trump's Unpopularity Threatens GOP Majorities as Iowa Senate Race Tightens
As Labor Day marks the unofficial start of the midterm campaign sprint, President Donald Trump's deep unpopularity is putting Republican majorities in Congress at risk, with just two months until the November 3 election. For Iowa voters, the stakes are especially high: the state is one of four where Trump won by double digits in 2024, yet a Democratic wave could put the Senate seat in play.
Midterm elections are traditionally a referendum on the White House occupant, and Trump's approval ratings are mired at an all-time low, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos survey. Broad majorities are dissatisfied with the war in Iran and the economy, and his net disapproval is nearly twice what it was at the same point in 2018, when Democrats gained 40 House seats.
Democrats are more enthusiastic about voting than Republicans, a finding backed by strong turnout in recent special and primary elections. Registered voters prefer Democratic candidates over Republican candidates by five percentage points, and history is on their side: the president's party has lost House seats in all but two midterms since 1938.
Why Iowa's Senate race is a key battleground
Even if Democrats win tough races in Georgia, Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina, they would still need to win at least two of four states where Trump won by double digits in 2024: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. Iowa's Senate race is one of the most closely watched in the country, and the outcome could determine control of the chamber.
Iowa farmers are feeling the pinch from rising energy costs and Trump's tariffs, which have hit agricultural exports hard. The state's voters are also watching the escalating trade war with Canada, which could affect cross-border commerce and supply chains.
“I think that there is just a general sense that the president is not focused on the number one issue with voters, which is affordability,” said Jessica Taylor, a Senate analyst at the Cook Political Report. “If you want to voice your displeasure with the president, the only way you can do that during the midterm elections is by voting against his party.”
Republicans hold structural advantages despite headwinds
Republicans retain several structural advantages. In the House, where the GOP holds a narrow 218-214 edge, the party could net as many as 10 additional seats based solely on redrawn maps after winning an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting war.
The Senate map is even more inhospitable for Democrats. Republican national party committees and aligned super PACs have far outstripped Democratic counterparts, and Trump's own super PAC is sitting on a $400 million war chest.
Republicans, led by Trump, have sought to portray Democrats as socialists and even communists, pointing to candidates like Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan.
“This is a 'Contrast for America' year,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said, in a nod to Republicans' “Contract with America” midterm campaign in 1994. “It's a contrast between common sense and crazy.”
Will Trump's focus backfire on vulnerable Republicans?
Republicans will hold an unusual midterm convention this week, an event party officials hope will re-energize the base while reminding voters of Trump's tax cuts and other accomplishments. But the convention's focus on Trump, who will speak on both nights, could also backfire by tying vulnerable Republicans to the president.
While affordability and the war are top issues, many campaigns will also focus on healthcare, Israel's war in Gaza, and the debate over data centers.
What does this mean for Iowa voters?
For Iowa voters, the election is a choice between the conservative policies that have driven economic growth and energy independence, or a return to progressive governance that could raise taxes and burden farmers. The Senate race in Iowa is a critical test of whether Trump's agenda resonates with the state's values.
Election Day is still eight weeks away, an eternity given Trump's ability to change the political conversation from one day to the next. But analysts say it may already be too late for Republicans to alter voters' negative perception of the economy.
“Can Republicans get their enthusiasm up some more?” said Kyle Kondik, an elections expert at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. “The flip side is that there is no recovery, and Trump's approval decline is terminal. That's the big question of the election to me.”
Frequently asked questions about the 2026 midterms in Iowa
When is the 2026 midterm election?
The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026. All 435 House seats and about a third of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot.
Why is the Iowa Senate race so important?
Iowa is one of four states where Trump won by double digits in 2024, and Democrats need to win at least two of these states to take control of the Senate. A Democratic win in Iowa could tip the balance of power.
What are the top issues for Iowa voters?
Affordability, energy costs, tariffs, and the trade war with Canada are top concerns for Iowa farmers and families. Healthcare and the war in Iran are also significant issues.
Can Republicans overcome Trump's unpopularity?
Republicans hope to rally the base with the midterm convention and remind voters of tax cuts and other accomplishments. However, analysts warn that Trump's approval decline may be terminal, making it difficult to change voters' perceptions.