Turek vs. Hinson: New Iowa Senate polls show razor-thin race

Iowa has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly two decades, but the race to replace retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst is shaping up to be one of the closest in the country. New polling shows Democratic state Representative Josh Turek and Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson locked in a statistical dead heat just weeks before the November 3 election.

A Suffolk University poll released Wednesday gives Turek a four-point lead, while other recent surveys show a nearly even split. Prediction markets still narrowly favor Hinson, underscoring the uncertainty in a contest that could help determine control of the U.S. Senate.

What the latest Iowa Senate polls show

The newest Suffolk University survey puts Turek at 48 percent and Hinson at 44 percent, with libertarian Thomas Laehn at about 2 percent. The poll, conducted October 1-4 among 500 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Suffolk's previous August survey had Hinson ahead 45 percent to 41 percent. That reversal provides encouraging evidence for Democrats, although the latest result remains statistically close. Suffolk also found Turek leading among independents, 58 percent to 30 percent.

A New York Times/Siena University poll, conducted September 22-October 1 among 606 likely voters, showed Hinson ahead 48 percent to 47 percent. Its reported margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 points.

Quantus Insights, polling September 28-29, found Hinson at 47.1 percent and Turek at 45.8 percent on initial preference. Including undecided voters' leanings brought them to 48.5 percent and 46.6 percent. The survey completed 738 interviews, and its analysis excluded 24 nonvoters. The reported full-study margin of error was 3.8 points.

Fox News found Turek ahead 49 percent to 47 percent. Its September 24-28 survey of 1,008 likely voters had a 3-point margin of error.

RealClearPolling's Wednesday average gave Turek a one-point edge, 46.2 percent to 45.2 percent. Taken together, the surveys suggest competitiveness, not a secure lead for either candidate.

What prediction markets say about the Iowa Senate race

Market traders remain slightly more favorable to Republicans than the polling average.

When checked Wednesday morning, Kalshi displayed approximately a 55 percent chance of a Hinson victory and 45 percent for Turek. Polymarket showed the same split. These are market-implied probabilities of winning, not projected vote shares, and prices can change throughout the day.

Major election forecasts also see a competitive contest. The Cook Political Report rates Iowa a toss up, while Inside Elections rates it tilt Republican, indicating a narrow GOP advantage.

For Democrats, Iowa has become a credible route to gaining a Senate seat. For Republicans, holding it would demonstrate that the state's conservative lean can withstand a difficult political environment.

When is the Iowa Senate debate and how to watch

Hinson and Turek will debate Wednesday, October 7, at 7 p.m. CT (8 p.m. ET) at Iowa PBS studios in Johnston. Iowa Press moderator Kay Henderson will lead the event alongside Iowa political reporters.

The debate will air live statewide on Iowa PBS. Viewers can stream it free through Iowa PBS's debate page and the broadcaster's YouTube channel. There will be no live studio audience.

With early voting approaching and Election Day on November 3, both candidates have an opportunity to reach voters beyond campaign advertising. Turek needs to turn dissatisfaction into confidence in his candidacy; Hinson needs to persuade undecided voters that her record offers practical answers.

Biggest issues facing Iowa voters

Affordability is central to the contest. Suffolk found groceries and fuel each named by about 28 percent of likely voters as the economic issue most affecting their household budget. Healthcare costs followed at about 20 percent.

The broader mood is unfavorable to the president. Marist polling in September found 41 percent of Iowa registered voters approved of Trump's performance and 58 percent disapproved. Forty-six percent said their family finances had worsened over the previous year.

Tariffs and the Iran war add particular pressure in an agricultural state exposed to trade uncertainty and fuel costs. Cook identifies those issues as important drivers of Iowa's difficult Republican environment.

Turek has criticized Hinson's support for the 2025 tax and spending law, particularly its Medicaid provisions. Hinson's campaign emphasizes tax relief, lower prescription drug costs, and stronger rural health care, presenting affordability as an issue she is working to address.

Whether a real Iowa shift exists remains to be seen. One competitive midterm cannot establish a new partisan alignment. But a Turek victory would end an 18-year Democratic Senate-election drought, and show that Republican dominance in Iowa has limits.

Frequently asked questions about the Iowa Senate race

Who is running for Iowa's open Senate seat?

Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek are the major party candidates. Libertarian Thomas Laehn is also on the ballot.

When is Election Day in Iowa?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Early voting is already approaching in the state.

Who is retiring from Iowa's Senate seat?

Republican Senator Joni Ernst is retiring, leaving the seat open for the first time in years.