Why Iowa football fans should care about the College Football Playoff expansion debate

By John Damon, Just The News Iowa

The expanded FIFA World Cup this summer thrilled fans with underdog stories and chaotic brackets, but the push to expand the College Football Playoff to 24 teams is a very different animal. And Iowa fans have a direct stake in the outcome.

While the World Cup added 16 teams and spread those new slots across less powerful soccer federations, the current proposal from Big Ten Commissioner Tony Pettiti would guarantee 23 of 24 playoff spots to power conference programs. Only one spot would be reserved for a team from the Group of 5 conferences. That means a team like Iowa, which finished 8-4 in 2024, would have been in the field under Pettiti's plan. But so would a lot of other middling power conference teams.

What the World Cup got right that college football is getting wrong

The World Cup's expansion worked because it gave more teams a real chance. Lower-ranked nations like Cape Verde and Congo DR pulled upsets and created memorable moments. The tournament had momentum from start to finish because underdogs had opportunities to compete.

But the proposed CFP expansion is different. It's not about giving more teams access. It's about locking in power conference dominance.

Under Pettiti's plan, the top 23 teams would be guaranteed spots. Only one slot would go to a Group of 5 champion. In 2024, that would have meant 22 power conference teams got in, including seven from the SEC and six from the Big Ten. Two Group of 5 teams finished ranked in the top 24, but the playoff committee has historically shown little respect for mid-majors.

Iowa's place in the expanded playoff picture

Based on the final 2024 CFP rankings, Iowa would have been the last team into a 24-team field under Pettiti's proposal. The Hawkeyes would have been joined by Notre Dame, BYU, Texas, Vanderbilt, Utah, USC, Arizona, Michigan, Virginia, Houston, and Georgia Tech.

But here is the reality check: analytics give those last four teams in the field a combined 0.8% chance of winning the national title. That includes Iowa.

If instead the CFP guaranteed spots for all conference champions, the last four teams would have been Duke, Boise State, Western Michigan, and Kennesaw State. Their combined title chance: 0.01%.

The difference is small, but the principle is large.

Access versus aesthetics in college football

The World Cup gave more spots to less represented regions. Africa doubled its representation and sent nine of its 10 teams to the knockout rounds. Oceania got a guaranteed spot for the first time. The result was a tournament that felt truly global.

College football is moving in the opposite direction. The Big Ten and SEC are consolidating power, not spreading opportunity.

As one soccer coach said during the World Cup, “If other countries aren't here, they failed to qualify. I don't see teams in this tournament that don't belong here.” That same logic should apply to college football. If you win your conference, you should get a shot.

The calendar problem nobody wants to talk about

Adding a fifth round to a playoff that already struggles to finish before February is a real concern. The title game has been pushed later and later, and an extra round would only make that worse.

One proposed solution is to eliminate conference title games. But for conferences like the Big Ten and SEC, those games define the season. They create drama and determine champions. Throwing them away for an extra playoff round is short-sighted.

What a better CFP expansion would look like

A 24-team playoff that invites every conference champion would be a different story. It would keep conference title games in place while preventing anyone from playing a 13th regular season game. It would create meaningful races in every conference, not just the power leagues.

And it would produce Cinderella stories. The odds of a mid-major winning a first round game in a 24-team field are about 50% over time. That is the kind of excitement that made the World Cup so compelling.

As the author notes, “The lowest-ranked teams in a 24-team college football tournament probably aren't going to win, no matter who they are. Who we invite is all about aesthetics.”

But aesthetics matter. They determine whether fans in Iowa City, Cedar Falls, or Ames have something to dream about in November.

The bottom line for Iowa fans

The CFP expansion debate is not just about the top teams. It is about whether college football will remain a sport where every conference champion has a path to the national title, or whether it will become an exclusive club for the biggest programs.

Iowa fans should pay attention. The decisions made in the next few years will shape the sport for a generation. And the Hawkeyes have as much to gain or lose as anyone.