2028 Presidential Race Heats Up: Vance Slips, Democrats in Disarray
By John Damon for Just The News Iowa
The 2028 presidential race is already taking shape, and for Iowans who pride themselves on being first in the nation for the GOP caucuses, the early picture is one of uncertainty on both sides of the aisle. While Republicans have a clearer calendar, Vice President JD Vance's once-commanding lead is eroding, and Democrats are mired in a messy primary calendar fight that could reshape their nominating process.
What's happening with the Democratic primary calendar?
Democrats are struggling to finalize their 2028 primary calendar. The national party is set to meet in Austin, Texas, next month, but there's deep disagreement over whether to set the schedule now or wait until after the 2026 midterms. The proposed plan calls for four early contests before Super Tuesday, one each in the South, Midwest, Northeast, and West. But tensions are high over which states go first, especially with Black voters feeling potentially slighted if Nevada or Virginia leapfrogs South Carolina.
New Hampshire, with its state law mandating it be the 'first in the nation,' remains a stubborn obstacle. President Joe Biden tried and failed to bypass it in 2024, and party leaders are still grappling with how to handle the Granite State's independent-minded voters.
Who's leading the Democratic field?
According to a new Emerson College poll, the Democratic field is in flux. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg now leads, followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. California Governor Gavin Newsom, once the early frontrunner, is losing ground. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear are gaining, while Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona is also emerging as a contender after finishing third in a New Hampshire poll. Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, despite online buzz, only managed 2 percent in that same poll.
What about the GOP side?
Republicans have more certainty on the calendar: Iowa first, then New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. But the race for the nomination is far from settled. Vice President JD Vance, who led all comers in New Hampshire with 53 percent in February, has seen his support slide to 35 percent. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has surged from 7 percent to 26 percent in the same period. Nationally, Vance's lead over Rubio has shrunk from 32 points to just 1 point.
The likely culprit? The ongoing war with Iran. Vance has been the face of failed peace talks, and the administration's handling of the conflict is a political liability. Whether Republicans who oppose the war or those who want to 'finish the job' are frustrated, Vance's numbers are taking a hit.
What does this mean for Iowa?
For Iowans, the 2028 race is already a local story. The Iowa caucuses remain the first test for Republican candidates, and the shifting dynamics mean candidates will be spending more time in the state. With Vance slipping and Rubio rising, expect a more competitive race than initially anticipated. For Democrats, the calendar chaos could mean Iowa's role is uncertain, but the state's voters will still be watching closely.
Key takeaways for Iowa voters
- Vance's vulnerability: The vice president's decline opens the door for other GOP contenders like Rubio, who is now within striking distance.
- Democratic disarray: The party's internal fights over the calendar and candidate field could benefit Republicans in the general election.
- Local impact: Iowa's first-in-the-nation status means candidates will be frequent visitors, giving voters a front-row seat to the action.
FAQ: What Iowa voters should know
Will the Iowa caucuses still be first in 2028?
Yes, for Republicans. The GOP calendar is set with Iowa first. Democrats are still debating their schedule, but Iowa's role is uncertain given the party's push for more diverse early states.
Why is Vance losing support?
Polls suggest the administration's handling of the Iran war is a major factor. Vance's association with failed peace talks has hurt him with both anti-war and pro-war Republicans.
Could a dark horse candidate emerge?
Absolutely. With the field still fluid, especially on the Democratic side, candidates like Senator Mark Kelly or Governor Josh Shapiro could gain momentum. On the GOP side, Rubio is the clear alternative to Vance.
This article is based on reporting from The Hill and other sources. For more Iowa-focused political coverage, stay with Just The News Iowa.