Record high diesel prices are squeezing Iowa farmers just days before the November midterm elections, and both of the state's marquee federal races are now competitive for the first time in more than a decade. Iowa PBS reported on October 23 that fuel costs have doubled over the past eight months, adding roughly $1,000 a day to some harvest operations and putting rural voters in a mood to reconsider their usual Republican ballots.
The pressure comes as both of Iowa's U.S. Senate seats and the governor's office are open because the incumbents are retiring. According to PBS.org, the state has not elected a Democratic governor or senator in more than a decade, but the retirements have made this year's contests genuinely competitive in a state that has voted Republican at the federal level the last two cycles.
What the diesel price surge is doing to Iowa farms
The ongoing war in Iran has driven up the price of fuel and fertilizer across the Corn Belt. Farmers have watched input costs climb for eight straight months, hitting producers who were already working with thin margins.
Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, told Iowa PBS that the increases hit everything at once. Seed, chemicals, repair costs and labor all went up, and then fuel and fertilizer spiked after the war began.
Lehman said he is spending an additional $1,000 a day to harvest and haul his crop, double what he spent in 2025. The fertilizer he put down on this season's corn now costs 75 percent more than it did a year ago.
Whether that is seed, whether it's chemicals, whether it's repair costs, labor costs, right after the war, the prices for fertilizer and diesel spiked dramatically, and we have seen that continue all the way through to our inputs for harvest and what, the fertilizer for next year, Lehman said.
How the candidates are answering
The cost of diesel led off a recent debate between Iowa's U.S. Senate candidates, a sign of how far the issue has climbed up the ballot.
Republican Representative Ashley Hinson argued the answer is lowering energy costs across the board.
It is about their bottom line and doing whatever we can to reduce energy costs, input costs across the board. So I have proposed a several point energy plan, diesel prices being the top of mind there, Hinson said.
Her Democratic opponent, Representative Josh Turek, tied the price spike directly to the war and to Hinson's votes in Congress.
When I'm out there with farmers, and especially at harvest time, talking about an all-time high of diesel, this is because of this war in Iran, and a war that Ashley Hinson has voted in favor of seven times, Turek said. We need to provide some relief to Iowans.
White House announces $8 billion farm bailout
The White House announced this week an $8 billion bailout for farmers hit by high diesel costs, according to the Iowa PBS report. Whether that money reaches producers before Election Day, and whether it blunts the political damage, remains to be seen.
The strain is not limited to Iowa. In Kansas, the U.S. Senate race is rated a toss-up, with incumbent Republican Roger Marshall facing a strong challenge from Pastor Adam Hamilton, who would be the first Democrat to represent that state in the Senate in nearly a century if he wins.
Some farmers are standing by the administration despite the costs. Ron Suppes, a Kansas wheat farmer, said he supports the war in Iran and plans to vote for Marshall.
I'm going to tolerate it until the end. I don't think it'll last that long, Suppes said. I think they ran into a situation where we need to do something now or never.
Farm economy sets the political tone
Agriculture represents only about 3 percent of Iowa's economy, but farm business sets the political and emotional tone for the whole state, as Iowa PBS reported. Low farm profits ripple outward, and economists have pointed to that ripple effect as one reason Iowa's economic growth has trailed its six neighboring states and the nation for a decade.
The New York Times reported this week that Iowa, usually safely red, is in play this midterm as economic woes mount, with expensive diesel and trade uncertainty testing the state's Republican lean.
In a break with its own tradition, the Iowa Farmers Union has endorsed every Democrat running for Congress in the state this year.
That's unusual for us, but our farmers are facing such a huge crisis. We really expect to have an Iowa response to that, Lehman said. This is meant to say we need a stronger response to what we're feeling here out on the ground.
Even some voters turning out for President Trump's campaign events are nervous about where fuel prices go next. CNN reported that Republicans waiting to see Trump speak in Sioux City on Thursday predicted diesel would climb even higher if the war with Iran resumes after November, as Trump has hinted it might.
Why this election could break Iowa's pattern
Iowa spent decades as a swing state before settling firmly into the Republican column in the last two federal elections. The combination of open seats, a farm economy under real stress and an $8 billion federal bailout still in the mail gives both parties something to argue about in the final stretch.
I think people are really starting to have a conversation, Lehman said. And a lot of people are saying, I need to reconsider.
Frequently asked questions
How much have diesel prices risen for Iowa farmers?
Diesel prices have roughly doubled over the last eight months, according to Iowa PBS, with some farmers reporting harvest costs of an extra $1,000 a day compared with 2025.
What is the federal government doing about high farm fuel costs?
The White House announced an $8 billion bailout this week for farmers facing high diesel costs.
Has the Iowa Farmers Union endorsed Democrats this year?
Yes. In a break from tradition, the organization endorsed all Democrats running for Congress in Iowa, citing the crisis farmers are facing.
Which Iowa races are competitive in 2026?
With incumbents retiring, both of Iowa's U.S. Senate races and the governor's race are competitive for the first time in more than a decade.