Farmers' anger over rising diesel and fertilizer costs is threatening Republican turnout in Iowa's tight midterm races just one week before Election Day, according to The Hill.
President Trump carried 69 percent of the rural vote in 2024, but polls now show deep dissatisfaction in farm country over the cost of living, tariffs, and input prices. With Iowa hosting close contests for governor and U.S. Senate, the question is whether frustrated farmers will show up at the polls, stay home, or in some cases cross party lines.
Rising Costs Put Farm Votes in Play
The Iran war and the administration's tariff and trade fights have driven up production costs for farmers, according to reporting by WAVY. Diesel is averaging roughly $6.35 per gallon, and fertilizer prices have climbed as well.
An April survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation found that 94 percent of farmers said their financial situation had worsened or stayed the same compared with last year.
“Yes, I think they're nervous. Yes, I think they should be, and yes, I think that farmers are pretty ticked off,” said Amy Frederiksen, a former Minnesota Republican Senate majority leader.
Frederiksen said farmers “don't want to vote for a lot of the Democrats' nonsense.”
“They want to vote for Republicans, but this is their business, these are their families, and it doesn't appear that anyone's listening,” she said.
Iowa Farmers Union Breaks With Republicans
The frustration has already produced a notable break in Iowa. Aaron Lehman, a fifth-generation Polk County farmer and president of the Iowa Farmers Union, said in a statement that the late relief efforts are “a good example of why the Iowa Farmers Union made the decision to endorse all five Democrats running to represent Iowans in the US Senate and House of Representatives.”
“Farmers never should have been put in this position. A Band-Aid response now, 2 weeks before the election, doesn't fix the problem,” Lehman said.
That endorsement is an unusually direct rebuke in a state where agricultural interests have long anchored the Republican coalition.
What the Polls Show About Rural Voters
A poll from KFF and The Associated Press found that roughly 6 in 10 rural voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the economy, and rural voters overwhelmingly named the cost of living as the top issue they want candidates to address, as ABC27 reported.
But the same poll shows rural Republican voters still trust the GOP more than Democrats on healthcare and the cost of living. That means the bigger risk for Republicans may be depressed turnout rather than defection.
“I think you'll see some poll to Democratic candidates, but I also heard a number of people tell me that they just don't feel like they can support anybody in this election, and that's a shame,” said Nick Levendofsky, director of the Kansas Farmers Union.
Brian Reisinger, a rural policy expert and author of “Land Rich, Cash Poor,” called this election “the biggest test yet of the Republican Party's standing in rural America.”
“The risk that exists is whether farm communities and other rural communities turn out at the same level or whether they stay home, and some folks at the margins end up willing to vote for a blue-collar Democrat who they think is fighting for them,” Reisinger said.
Trump Administration Rolls Out Farm Relief
The administration has responded with a burst of pre-election announcements aimed at farm country.
Trump announced an $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program last week while campaigning for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, telling the crowd it will “offset diesel costs during this harvest season.” The Agriculture Department said the fund will provide one-time payments to farmers.
Vice President Vance announced a $1.3 billion investment in domestic fertilizer plants during a stop in Nebraska, with two plants planned for that state. Trump has also promised year-round sales of E15, the fuel blended with 15 percent ethanol, if Marshall is reelected. That issue carries particular weight in Iowa, the nation's leading ethanol producer.
The administration previously signed an executive order increasing the availability of red-dyed diesel, the tax-exempt fuel typically used in farm and construction equipment.
White House Defends Its Record
The White House pushed back on criticism of the timing. Anna Kelly, White House principal deputy press secretary, said in a statement that “farmers suffered for years under Joe Biden, who increased the United States' trade deficit to over $1.2 trillion, raised input costs, and pushed woke DEI agricultural policies.”
“In contrast, President Trump is helping our agriculture industry by negotiating new trade deals, lowering input costs, bolstering the farm safety net, doubling the death tax exemption, ending taxes on rural property loan interest, creating rural opportunity zones, and more,” Kelly said.
Will Relief Announcements Move Voters?
Not everyone is convinced the last-minute packages will work.
“Personally, I think it's too little, too late. They should have been doing something as far as relief a long time ago,” Levendofsky said. “I think it's their last-ditch Hail Mary ... to try to pull in some votes ahead of the election. And I don't know if it's going to do them any good, to be honest.”
Ryan Horn, founding partner of Nebraska-based Bullhorn Communications, predicted that Republicans who typically vote in midterms will still show up, but said the announcements “probably won't change the decision points for most voters.”
Reisinger said candidates in both parties need to connect their policies to the long-term and short-term needs of rural communities rather than take those voters for granted.
“It's certainly solidly red and solidly conservative, but how much that rural vote is willing to turn out, and how much of that rural vote can maybe get peeled off a little bit at the margins by Democrats, all of that comes down to: Are you taking rural voters seriously?” he said.
In Iowa, where the races for governor and Senate remain close, that question will be answered at the ballot box next Tuesday.
FAQ
Why are Iowa farmers frustrated with Republicans before the midterms?
Farmers cite rising diesel prices of roughly $6.35 per gallon, higher fertilizer costs, and market disruptions tied to tariffs and the Iran war. An American Farm Bureau Federation survey in April found 94 percent of farmers said their finances had worsened or stayed flat.
What relief has the Trump administration offered farmers?
The administration announced an $8 billion Harvest Fuel Relief Program for one-time diesel offset payments, a $1.3 billion investment in domestic fertilizer plants, a promised year-round E15 ethanol rule, and an executive order expanding access to red-dyed diesel.
Could farmers vote Democrat in Iowa's midterm races?
The Iowa Farmers Union has endorsed all five Democrats running for U.S. Senate and House in Iowa. Polls suggest most rural Republicans still prefer the GOP, but the larger risk for the party is that frustrated farmers stay home on Election Day, according to NewsNation.