Iowa has become one of the most contested political battlegrounds in the country just days before the November 2026 midterms, with the Senate race between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek locked in a statistical dead heat.
According to Slate Magazine, which published a detailed look at the state's political shift on October 28, three of Iowa's four congressional seats are now in play, and the races for governor and U.S. Senate rank among the tightest in the nation. That is a striking turnaround for a state President Donald Trump carried by more than 13 points in 2024.
How a Deep Red State Became a Toss-Up
Two years ago, Democrats had all but written off the Hawkeye State. Iowa's entire congressional delegation was Republican, the GOP held supermajorities in both chambers of the state Legislature, and a state Barack Obama won twice had gone for Trump three elections in a row.
Now the picture has changed. Public polling shows Hinson and Turek neck and neck, with the most recent Insider Advantage poll giving Hinson the narrowest of leads. Republicans privately concede the national environment, including the war in Iran and rising gas prices, has been a drag on the ticket. One GOP operative told Slate that without those headwinds, Hinson would be leading beyond the margin of error.
Gas prices have climbed faster in Iowa than in nearly any other state, and diesel prices sit at an all-time high as farmers head into harvest, a combination that hits the state's agricultural economy hard.
What the Candidates Are Saying
Hinson, a three-term congresswoman and former newscaster who defeated an incumbent Democrat to win her seat in 2020, has run a disciplined campaign painting Turek as a liberal and herself as a bipartisan problem-solver. Her ads feature her young sons in a food fight meant to symbolize Washington dysfunction, along with a lifelong Democrat speaking directly to camera in her support.
Turek, a two-term state representative and gold medal-winning Paralympian, argues Iowa was never as red as it looked. He points to the state's history of electing liberal Democrat Tom Harkin alongside Republican Chuck Grassley for three decades.
“In Trump's last midterm, we won three of the four congressional races, 3 points away from winning all four,” Turek told Slate. “And things are much, much worse here in Iowa than they were then.”
House Seats in Jeopardy
The congressional map looks just as competitive. Republicans are privately writing off the southeastern Iowa seat held by three-term Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who survived her 2024 race by just 799 votes. Party operatives are also growing pessimistic about the Des Moines-based seat held by two-term Rep. Zach Nunn.
The closest House contest is for the northeastern Iowa seat Hinson is vacating. Republican nominee Joe Mitchell told Slate he is confident, arguing that if Democrats truly believed Trump would sink him, the president would appear in every attack ad against him.
“They don't put him in any of the ads because they know he's popular,” Mitchell said.
Mitchell, who has not distanced himself from Trump, appeared when the president visited Sioux City last week and presented him with a handmade “Man of the Century” award. On the war with Iran and gas prices, he blamed factors ranging from Ukraine to Joe Biden, saying voters understand things “were far worse under Joe Biden and Democratic control less than two years ago.”
Polling, however, shows most voters blame the current administration for the country's economic troubles rather than the previous one.
Governor's Race Favors Democrat Rob Sand
In the race to replace the governor, state Auditor Rob Sand is favored to defeat Republican Zach Lahn. Sand, a two-term statewide officeholder, has built a moderate image and campaigned on his disdain for politics as usual. A Republican operative acknowledged that in a year when voters want change agents, Sand positioned himself well with swing voters.
Operatives in both parties say Iowans compartmentalize state and federal races, noting Sand runs notably ahead of Turek in the polls.
Trump Campaigns in Red States as Midterms Near
The president has been campaigning in states he won comfortably two years ago, Spectrum Local News reported on October 26, eight days before the midterms, a sign that Republicans are working to shore up their base even in friendly territory. Reuters has also documented Trump's red state campaign blitz in photos as the final stretch unfolds.
Is Iowa Still a Red State?
Not everyone agrees the state has turned purple. Nate Willems, the Democratic nominee for attorney general, described Iowa as “maroon,” more red than purple but short of solid red. He said voters are not seeking a Democratic takeover of state government but a check on Republicans who have dominated Des Moines for more than a decade.
“We're talking about just having balance, just trying to bring Iowa back to a state where both parties have to work together to come and find agreement,” Willems said.
Others see a genuine shift. George Pickup, a Democratic state House candidate in a rural district near the Mississippi River, said the mood at the doors has changed since 2024.
“Trump's not getting the supporters, and people are backing away from him,” Pickup said.
Mitchell counters that independents in his district view rising national Democrats such as Zohran Mamdani as too radical, and that this distaste for the left will motivate voters to back Republicans even when they disagree with the party. Similar red-state dynamics are playing out elsewhere; in Missouri, Trump won by 18 points in 2024 and Republicans still control state government, Conservative Move reported.
What to Watch on Election Night
Iowa voters head to the polls Tuesday. The Senate race between Hinson and Turek, the governor's contest between Sand and Lahn, and at least three competitive House seats will determine whether the state that Trump carried three times stays in the Republican column or splits its ticket once again.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is running for U.S. Senate in Iowa in 2026?
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are competing for the seat being vacated by two-term Republican Sen. Joni Ernst. Public polling shows the race is a toss-up.
Who is favored in the Iowa governor's race?
Democrat Rob Sand, the two-term state auditor, is favored against Republican Zach Lahn, though polls remain tight.
Which Iowa House seats are competitive in 2026?
The seats held by Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn are at risk, and the open northeastern seat vacated by Ashley Hinson is the closest race in the state.