White evangelical Christians remain President Donald Trump's most reliable voting bloc even as his overall approval has slid sharply, and Reuters reporting published by ThePrint suggests their loyalty could decide Senate races in November, including in Iowa.
Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump's support among white evangelicals fell to 63% this month from 77% in January 2025. That decline is smaller than his drop among the electorate as a whole, which fell from 47% to 31%, and white evangelicals are the only major demographic group tracked by Reuters/Ipsos where his support still tops 60%, according to Reuters.
Why Iowa Matters in This Story
White evangelicals make up about 13% of American adults, but they accounted for nearly a third of Trump's winning 2024 coalition, according to the Public Religion Research Institute and the Pew Research Center. More than 80% of them voted for Trump in each of his three presidential campaigns, Pew found.
Reuters notes that evangelical loyalty could prove decisive in Senate races beyond South Carolina, including in Iowa and Kansas, where white evangelicals make up a significant share of the electorate. With control of Congress at stake in the November 3 midterms, that makes Iowa's evangelical communities a bloc no Republican candidate can afford to lose.
A 'Grand Bargain' That Outlasts Scandal and Gas Prices
The bond between the thrice-married Trump and white evangelicals has survived a decade of scandals and investigations, including dozens of sexual misconduct allegations he denies and a hush-money case. The question for Republicans is whether economic pressures and unhappiness over the Iran war, now in its eighth month, are finally weakening that bond.
Robert P. Jones, president of the Public Religion Research Institute, calls it a 'grand bargain' forged during the 2016 election. Many evangelicals have overlooked Trump's personal conduct in exchange for his commitment to curtail abortion, advance a conservative Christian vision of American life, and pursue strict immigration policies.
'That has proven to be more powerful for this group than what they're having to pay at the gas pump,' Jones told Reuters.
What Churchgoers in South Carolina Are Saying
Reuters interviewed 15 people at two South Carolina churches, Village Church in Blythewood and Carolina Baptist Church in Spartanburg. Only two said they were considering the Democratic candidate, and none indicated they were abandoning Trump.
Several voiced frustration with the Iran conflict and rising gas prices, but most said they trusted Trump to keep Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon or, like the president, blamed inflation on policies enacted under President Joe Biden.
Karen Whiting, a 72-year-old retired pharmaceutical executive, plans to vote for Republican Darline Graham over Democrat Annie Andrews in South Carolina's unexpectedly competitive Senate race.
'I'm voting for biblical principles, and I do not believe the Democratic Party stands for biblical principles,' Whiting said. 'Without God, this country's going to fail.'
Social Issues Still Drive the Evangelical Vote
Chad Connelly, who heads the Christian voter-engagement group Faith Wins, said evangelicals 'don't like paying higher prices' but remain equally animated by social issues. Concerns about transgender athletes are 'really playing everywhere' across the nearly two dozen states he has visited this cycle, he said.
That tracks with what Iowans heard all year from Republican campaigns focused on parental rights, girls' sports, and religious liberty. It also matches a pattern noted by SRN News: even voters lukewarm on specific Republican candidates say they cannot risk handing a Senate seat to a Democrat.
Kevin Thomas, a 53-year-old who backed Ralph Norman in the August runoff, put it plainly.
'I'm leaning towards holding my nose and voting for Graham,' Thomas said. 'I'm not willing to sacrifice six years of having a Democrat representing us in South Carolina.'
The Democratic Candidate's Pitch Falls Flat
Andrews told Reuters she visited evangelical churches and found voters chiefly concerned about the economy. 'They're struggling with the cost of everything. That's why I'm running,' she said in a statement.
She has even run an ad saying she opposes transgender women competing in women's sports and gender-affirming surgeries for minors. It has not moved voters like Thomas, who said he does not trust her on the issue.
A candidate guide produced by the conservative Palmetto Family Council and distributed to churches across South Carolina gave Graham green check marks on all seven issues it rated, including restrictions on abortion medication and gender-affirming care, while Andrews received mostly red X's.
What to Watch Before November 3
The Trafalgar Group, a Republican-leaning pollster, released a survey this week showing Andrews trailing Graham by just 3 percentage points in a state Trump carried comfortably.
If a Senate seat can tighten that much in South Carolina, the Reuters findings carry a clear warning for Iowa Republicans: evangelical turnout is not automatic, and candidates who assume it will show up without earning it do so at their peril.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much has Trump's support among white evangelicals dropped?
From 77% in January 2025 to 63% in October, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.
Why do white evangelicals matter in Iowa's Senate race?
White evangelicals make up a significant share of Iowa's electorate and voted more than 80% for Trump in all three of his campaigns, per Pew Research Center data cited by Reuters.
Do evangelicals still support Trump despite gas prices and the Iran war?
Yes. Reuters interviews found most evangelical voters still back Trump, citing his record on abortion, immigration, and keeping Iran from a nuclear weapon.