Poll shows Democrats with 10-point edge on Congress
The poll, which surveyed 3,494 voters between October 12 and 19, tested a generic congressional ballot that included the names of candidates running in each race. Democrats came out ahead 47% to 35%, a margin that should alarm every Republican incumbent on the ballot this fall.
Among the 35 states with Senate races, Democrats held a five-point advantage. The poll carried a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points, according to The Financial Express.
Trump's approval rating stood at 36%, with 59% disapproving. The numbers on kitchen-table issues were worse: 69% disapproved of his handling of the cost of living, and 73% disapproved of his handling of gas prices. The national average price of gasoline has climbed above $4 per gallon, driven in part by the war in Iran and its effect on energy costs.
Voters rank economy and cost of living first
Economic worries dominated the survey. About 22% of respondents named the economy, including jobs and the stock market, as the country's most important problem. Inflation and cost of living ranked second at 11%, followed by immigration at 10%.
Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said Democrats held advantages of eight to 20 percentage points on issues including the economy, cost of living, gas prices, health care, corruption, foreign wars and artificial intelligence.
Still, Levy said, dissatisfaction runs in both directions.
Majorities think both parties are focused more on the wrong rather than the right things, he said.
More than two-thirds of independent voters disapproved of Trump's job performance, a warning sign for Republicans in close House and Senate races. Among Republicans, the picture is different: 82% approved of Trump's performance and his signature policies, including tariffs and the war in Iran.
The Guardian reported the same New York Times/Siena polling low on Trump's approval, with voters giving him poor marks on the economy and cost of living.
Other pollsters see similar numbers
A Reuters/Ipsos survey of 1,679 adults put Trump's approval at 32%, one point above its record low of 31%, with disapproval rising to 66%. An earlier Reuters/Ipsos poll published October 5 found 44% of registered voters planned to back Democrats in the midterms, compared with 37% for Republicans, with 13% undecided. Notably, 52% of respondents in that survey, including 53% of Republicans, called the cost of living the top issue.
A CBS/YouGov poll conducted September 30 through October 2 found Trump's approval at 39%. POLITICO reported that Trump's numbers have hit new lows in the final midterm stretch, with CNN/SSRS showing him at 32%, seven points below his standing before the 2018 midterms, when Democrats netted 41 House seats.
An Associated Press-NORC poll of 2,140 adults, taken September 24 through 28, found just 26% approving of Trump's handling of the economy and only 17% approving of his handling of the cost of living, while 65% blamed him for persistently high costs.
The New York Times reported that likely voters preferred Democratic candidates by 11 percentage points in their congressional districts in the final Times/Siena national poll before the election, a slight Democratic improvement from earlier readings.
Trump campaigns hard, Iowa visit Thursday
Trump has answered the tough numbers with a packed campaign schedule. In recent days he has rallied voters in Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Georgia, Kentucky, Kansas and North Carolina. In early September he said he planned to visit 35 battleground locations before Election Day.
I'm going to go to every one of those 35 places, and we're going to see if we can get everyone elected, Trump told reporters in the White House Rose Garden. We're going to really work hard.
He is scheduled to campaign in South Carolina on Wednesday and Iowa on Thursday, followed by Florida, Georgia and Michigan later in the week. For Iowa Republicans, the visit is a chance to energize the base in a state where Trump has consistently drawn large, enthusiastic crowds.
Some Republicans in competitive races have tried to distance themselves from Trump, especially on economic issues, worried that voter frustration with tariffs and gas prices could drag down their campaigns. Others have leaned into the President's support, betting that his 82% approval among Republicans and his ability to pack rallies will matter more than the poll averages.
What's at stake on November 3
The midterms will decide whether Republicans keep control of Congress through the second half of Trump's term or whether Democrats gain the power to block his legislative agenda and ramp up congressional investigations of his administration.
For Iowa, the stakes include the farm economy, where tariff policy has drawn mixed reviews from agricultural producers, and the energy picture, where gas above $4 a gallon hits rural drivers and freight costs hardest. The President's Thursday stop suggests his campaign sees Iowa as ground worth fighting for, whatever the national numbers say.
FAQ
What is Trump's approval rating in the latest poll?
Trump's approval rating stands at 36% in the poll of 3,494 voters conducted October 12 through 19, with 59% disapproving, according to The Financial Express.
When is Trump campaigning in Iowa?
Trump is scheduled to campaign in Iowa on Thursday, after a Wednesday stop in South Carolina and ahead of visits to Florida, Georgia and Michigan.
How much do Democrats lead Republicans in the congressional ballot test?
Democrats lead 47% to 35% in the October poll, a 10-point edge based on ballots listing the actual candidates in each race.
What issues do voters care about most in the midterms?
The economy ranked first at 22%, inflation and cost of living second at 11%, and immigration third at 10% in the survey.